NFL Survivor 2025 Week 10
Probably the most popular football contest ever, Survivor only requires you to pick 1 game winner each week. The catch, you can’t use the same team twice. Here are some different strategies that I’m applying each week, and of course the teams I expect to win.
DraftKings Pools offers multiple NFL Survivor contests each season with entry fees ranging from $10 to $1,000. If I’m going to enter a $1,000 Survivor contest, it would be the Circa Survivor, which pays out $15 million to the winner. I haven’t had as much success with survivor as I have with pick ’em pools, so I stay to the $10 and $100 entries. This year, I have 40 entries in the $10 pool (winner gets $1.2 million) and 3 entries in $100 contest (winner gets $900 thousand). They are also running 2nd and 3rd chance survivor pools that I will enter and follow similar strategies as outlined below.
New Mexico Strategy
The New Mexico strategy is a selection of teams using the New Mexico pick ’em model. I use this model for against the spread predictions, and this season I’m running it in the Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest. I will start with the teams it likes to win big, and then consider if they are home/away or playing a divisional opponent.
The LA Rams did not disappoint last week, allowing me and the 64% of contestants that selected the Rams to move on to week 10. This weeks card is a little challenging. The larger lines are in divisional matchups, or require you to use a road team. Or in Buffalo’s instance, both. I try to stay away from divisional and road favorites if possible. Sometimes it can’t be avoided. Based on the lines and matchups, I’m expecting Buffalo and Detroit to get the most selections this week. I like the Lions, but I already used them a few weeks ago at home against Cleveland.
Not wanting to be on the clear public teams, that means I’m going to try and avoid Buffalo. Which shouldn’t be too hard since they are playing a divisional opponent on the road. I don’t care how bad Miami looks, they are still a professional football team, I think, and have the ability to win. The Panthers could be a solid option, as they are a nice sized favorite at home against a bad team. I faded the Saints last week against the Rams in survivor, but this divisional game has me pause.
To me, there are 2 options out there; Indianapolis and Chicago. The New Mexico model agrees completely, expecting both teams to come away victorious this week. Unfortunately for me, I used the Colts a few weeks back at home against the Raiders, so I only have 1 option left, the Bears. Putting my faith in Caleb Williams makes me a bit nervous, but the Giants are not a good team. I didn’t expect much from the Giants this season, and with all of the injuries the offense isn’t playing as well as it did once they made the QB switch to Dart. Ben Johnson is a first year head coach, but I also give him the advantage over Daboll.
Option Strategy
The option strategy requires a user to make a contest entry on both sides of a game. This will ensure that 1 entry moves on to the next week. However, it also means 1 entry will be eliminated. It is a good strategy to use early in the season. It allows you to get a better understanding of each team, avoid the early upsets and save good teams for later in the season.
I’ve decided not to run the option strategy for the next few weeks. Hopefully I’m able to take 2 of the top teams identified by the New Mexico model to keep all options open moving forward. This will allow me to use the option strategy one more time later if caught in a tough week.
What teams are you taking this week and why? Let me know in the comments.
