2025 Week 10 NFL Contest Picks
Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool
The NFL season is now half over. I’m glad to be moving into the 2nd half of the season, and really happy to put the disastrous 2nd quarter performance behind. Lots of things went wrong last week, and the model spit out another 1-4 week. The drop in the rankings continues, and not even worth mentioning here.
In the NFL it’s imperative that you put teams away. You can’t take your foot off the gas at any point. The Patriots are a prime example of this, hanging on to win by 1 point after leading by 10 points entering the 4th quarter. Luckily for them, Atlanta’s kicking troubles continue, unlucky for me, they didn’t cover. Offensive woes was also the issue in Houston. The Texans managed to kick 5 field goals, but missed the 6th one that could’ve won the game or at least forced overtime. It didn’t help that QB Stroud was knocked out with a concussion, as his replacement Mills was not able to generate anything offensively.
The Colts had as many turnovers against the Steelers as they did in their previous 8 games. They still managed to score 20 points and had a chance to tie it late, but it’s hard to win/cover when you have that many turnovers in one game. The Seahawks took care of business against Washington, which was the lone bright spot on the card. Then on MNF Dallas was not able to get it’s powerful offense going, and it’s defense continued to struggle. The Arizona offense has looked much better under the leadership of QB Brissett.
Here is a look at the contest performance through week 9:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | DraftKings | SuperContest |
| Last Week: | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Overall: | 24-21 | 26-19 | 23-21-1 |
Week 10 picks
New Mexico model
The Ravens have performed like the preseason expectations in the last 2 weeks. They also have a mini-bye after beating Miami on TNF in week 9. With the injuries this team has faced, any extra rest is needed. The Vikings defense continues to be the strength of the team, helping the Vikings stay in games and giving the offense a chance to steal a few. The Vikings need consistent quarterback play, which has eluded them so far this season. The Ravens defense takes advantage of the in-season trade acquisitions and continue to show improvement against a below average Vikings offense.
Speaking of Miami, the Dolphins have the worst defense in the NFL, and the offense isn’t much better. I know this seems like the typical spot that a terrible team keeps it close and nearly pulls the upset of a huge divisional road favorite. However, Buffalo is on a mission, and boast the number 1 offense and number 5 defense in the NFL. They took down Kansas City last week, and as long as the team stays focused and doesn’t play down to opponents level, this shouldn’t be a close game.
The Lions didn’t have their best performance last week against the Vikings and were upset at home. I highly doubt a Dan Campbell lead team will have a similar performance this week. Not only do I expect the Lions to be laser focused in preparation this week, but this is a game the Lions have had circled all offseason. The Commanders knocked the Lions out of the playoffs last year in the divisional round, and I expect them to want to show the world that was a mistake. It helps that Detroit has good offense and defense ratings while Washington is rated below average in both.
Arizona has looked more consistent on offense with QB Brissett leading the charge. It’s interesting that the team said QB Murray could potentially play against Dallas on MNF, then quickly named Brissett the starter after the victory. They say you can’t lose your job to injury, but if the replacement wins games then you can. Just ask Drew Bledsoe. Unfortunately for Arizona, they must travel to Seattle for this weeks game. The Seahawks have the 2nd rated offense and 7th rated defense, so will be a much harder test than Dallas was last week.
In an odd twist, New Mexico has decided to fade Philadelphia. Despite having these 2 teams rated next to each other, the simulations have shown a clear edge to the Packers in this game. If New Mexico wants to have any success with this selection, then the Packers will need to do a much better job in stopping the rush, and force Philadelphia into long passing situations.
Here are the week 10 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Circa line | DraftKings line | SuperContest line |
| Baltimore | -3.5 | -3.5 | -4 |
| Buffalo | -9.5 | -9.5 | -9.5 |
| Detroit | -7.5 | -8.5 | -8 |
| Seattle | -6.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 |
| Green Bay | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
Original Model
The original model is sinking faster than New Mexico. After back-to-back 2-3 weeks, the original model had back-to-back 1-4 performances. That brings its overall record to 23-22 on the season.
The models aligned on 2 plays last week, New England and Indianapolis. Both teams failed to cover and the Colts failed to win. System alignment seems like a curse at this point this season. Teams that are picks by both systems are 3-6 ATS this season. Thankfully, there is no system alignment this week.
While it wasn’t an official New Mexico pick last week, the Jaguars were unable to cover giving the Original model a 2-0 in head-to-head matchups. They are battling once again this week, with 2 head-to-head matchups. It’s weird that New Mexico likes the road favorites and the original model likes the home dog. Then again, the New Mexico has been a bit of a public player this year, and hasn’t really like a lot of underdogs.
Here are the week 10 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Miami | +9.5 |
| Jacksonville | +1.5 |
| Minnesota | +3.5 |
| LA Chargers | -2.5 |
| Chicago | -3.5 |
