NFL Week 16 Best Bets
Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool
The decision to switch both Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest to the New Mexico system continues to be the right choice. The original model went 1-4 last week while New Mexico went 3-2. It’s nice that New Mexico had a winning record, but 3-2 is still not enough to win a Circa Millions quarter or any SuperContest mini-contest (3-week, 6-week, 2nd half), so the model must perform better if I have any chance of success and placing.
The only game the original system covered last week was in the head-to-head matchup with the New Mexico system on the Pittsburgh at Philadelphia game. That brings the head-to-head matchups record to 13-8 in favor of New Mexico. There were no games with system alignment last week, so that record will stand at 6-4.
New Mexico
After another 3-2 performance in week 15, New Mexico still improved its DraftKings ranking, moving up 4 spots to 129th position. I’m glad that New Mexico continues to improve it’s standing in the DraftKings contest, but I’m running out of time to make up more ground.
The DraftKings season long pick ’em pools are a little different than the contests in Las Vegas. Besides every game having a half point line to avoid pushes, the DraftKings pools are based on 80 picks instead of 90. The 10 less games is because DraftKings pool only runs through week 17, and requires the contestants to use a “bye” week. I have not used the bye week for this entry yet, with the plan of week 17 being the bye week, so this is my last week for this entry. I’m going to need the current contestants ranked higher to have a shitty couple of weeks so I can move up and make some cash.
DraftKings also runs a bunch of 2nd/3rd chance pools. I entered a 2nd chance pool that started in week 2 and followed same rules as original but with 75 picks instead of 80. I used the “bye” week immediately in week 2 just to get more data for my systems and give better chance to win. The New Mexico entry in the 2nd chance pool has gone 41-24 in weeks 3-14, and this has me in a 4-way tie for first place. I still have 10 picks to make on this entry, so I’m hoping I can pull away with a couple of good weeks and win it all. Now that I’m talking about it, I will probably having losing weeks and fall out of the top-10.
Here is a look at the New Mexico contest records through week 15:
| Contest Results | SuperContest 2nd half | DraftKings | Circa Millions 4th Qtr |
| Last week | 3-2 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Overall | 20-10 | 46-29 | 6-4 |
New Mexico – Week 16 Picks
Detroit is rated the 2nd best team in the NFL by New Mexico, this is mostly due to the success of the offense. After a few tough weeks, New Mexico has downgraded Detroit’s defense significantly, but the Lions are still rated as a great team. The Bears are not a great team, they are not even an average team. New Mexico has Chicago rated as below average and on the cusp of bad. The problem is the offense, and despite firing the head coach and the OC the offense continues to struggle. The defense kept this team in games, but lost its leader when the HC was fired, and has lost a bit of its gusto as well. Look for Detroit to take out some frustrations of last weeks loss on Chicago this week.
The New York football Giants are a bad football team, but Atlanta is below average. In fact Atlanta’s defense is rated worse than the Giants by the New Mexico model. This is the perfect game for the Giants struggling offense to get going, and hopefully the defense hasn’t quit yet and gets after rookie QB Penix Jr. making his first NFL start. The difference between below average and bad is not 8.5 points, so just like last week I’m taking the NY Giants and the inflated value. Hopefully this week has a different outcome than last week.
Buffalo is the top rated team in the New Mexico model, so they are categorized as great. New England is rated bad, but there is a large gap between New England and the bottom 2 teams of Cleveland and Las Vegas. The expected line should be more like 8-10 on a matchup between great and bad, maybe a little less if a division rivalry. That means New England is getting inflated value, and I’m happy to take it, especially against a defense that New Mexico rates as average.
I don’t think there is an NFC team playing any better than Tampa Bay right now, and despite the recent downgrade from the New Mexico model from good to above average, this line seems to have some “Americas Team” value built in. Dallas showed the world last week that it shouldn’t be taken for granted with a road victory against Carolina as an underdog. However, beating up on non-playoff teams has never been an issue for head coach McCarthy nor the Cowboys, so that was expected. Performance against playoff caliber teams is another story. Tampa Bay’s 6th rated offense should have a field day against a below average defense with a lot of key injuries.
Finally, in the MNF game we have the average Saints traveling to good/great Green Bay. No matter how the Packers are rated, 14 points is too much, and I’ll once again gladly take the extra value provided New Orleans. The Saints defense is rated 11th by the New Mexico model, and has done a good job of giving the offense chances. Look for the Saints to keep this game closer to a touchdown.
Here are the week 16 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Super Contest line | DraftKings line | Circa Millions line |
| Detroit | -6.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 |
| NY Giants | +8.5 | +8.5 | +8.5 |
| New England | +14 | +14.5 | +14 |
| Tampa Bay | -4 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
| New Orleans | +14 | +13.5 | +14.5 |
Original Model
Here’s a look at the contest records after week 15, it’s clear why I’ve changed both Circa Millions and the SuperContest to use the New Mexico system:
| Contest Results | Circa Million Qtrs 1-3 | SuperContest 1st half | DraftKings |
| Last week | 1-4 | ||
| Overall | 27-38 | 15-29-1 | 30-45 |
Original Model – Week 16 Picks
Here are the week 16 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Baltimore | -6.5 |
| Cincinnati | -7.5 |
| Philadelphia | -3.5 |
| NY Jets | +3.5 |
| Seattle | +3.5 |
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
