NFL Week 17 Best Bets
Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool
I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas, I know I did. Lots of food and gifts to go with an NFL double header. The Chiefs and Ravens both won, giving Baltimore the lead in the NFC North, so I’m that much closer to cashing that futures ticket. I also have future tickets for Baltimore to win the AFC and the Super Bowl, so I’m hopeful they stay hot the next 5 weeks.
New Mexico
Because of the structure of the DraftKings season long pick ’em pools, I have no more picks for New Mexico this season. Despite the 2-3 record last week I still moved up in the standings slightly, but without any more picks I can only improve if people in front of me have a bad week 17, so it looks like I will finish just outside the top-100, but still high enough to place and win my entry fee back, plus a few extra bucks.
DraftKings also runs a bunch of 2nd/3rd chance pools. I entered a 2nd chance pool that started in week 2 and followed same rules as original but with 75 picks instead of 80. I used the “bye” week immediately in week 2 just to get more data for my systems and give better chance to win. The New Mexico entry in the 2nd chance pool has gone 43-27 in weeks 3-16, and this has me in a 2-way tie for second place. this is the last week for this contest, so hopefully I perform well and can win 1st place.
The 2-3 result last week took away any chances of placing in the mini-contests for both Circa and SuperContest, so I won’t be winning any money in these contests this year, but I’m very excited for the opportunities that New Mexico will bring next year for these contests.
Here is a look at the New Mexico contest records through week 16:
| Contest Results | SuperContest 2nd half | DraftKings | Circa Millions 4th Qtr |
| Last week | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Overall | 22-13 | 48-32 | 8-7 |
New Mexico – Week 17 Picks
Both Tennessee and Jacksonville are bad teams that are experiencing quarterback issues. The Titans have turned to backup QB Rudolph because of all the turnovers coming from Levis. The Jaguars are forced to go with Jones since Lawrence was put on IR with a concussion. This game could go either way, but I think Jacksonville gets the win at home based on point differential and a coaching staff that is fighting for their jobs.
The Panthers are a below average football team, but have been performing much better the 2nd half of the season with QB Young showing much improvement in the passing game. Tampa Bay struggles on defense despite having great offensive success and are graded as an above average football team. A line between above and below average teams should be between 3 and 4.5 points, so I will take the extra value with Carolina.
Last week the Eagles got off to a hot start, but then lost QB Hurts to a concussion and allowed Washington to come back and win in the 4th quarter. Despite losing QB Prescott earlier this year, the Cowboys are still playing well despite the below average rating. As just mentioned in the CAR/TB game the difference between below and above average teams is 3-4.5, so I’ll take the Cowboys and the extra points in this division rivalry.
Washington is graded as a good team, and showed resilience last week in the comeback win at Philadelphia. Atlanta got a spark with QB Penix Jr taking control of the offense, which sucks because I have a ticket for Cousins to throw over 4,000 yards and he could’ve achieved that number if not benched last week. Still the Falcons grade out as an average team because of a defense that continues to struggle. The Commanders 3rd rated offense shouldn’t have any problems in this game, and I doubt the Penix Jr will be as efficient in this start than against a Giants team that has clearly given up on the season.
Detroit is the best team in the NFL according to the New Mexico model. With all of the injuries that San Francisco has dealt with this year, they are only grading out as an average football team. Detroit has had this game circled since the schedule was released, and they will be seeking revenge from last seasons NFC Championship game. Look for Detroit to lay the wood against the 49ers.
Here are the week 17 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Super Contest line | DraftKings line | Circa Millions line |
| Jacksonville | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Carolina | +8 | +7.5 | +8 |
| Dallas | +9.5 | +8.5 | +9.5 |
| Washington | -4 | -4.5 | -4 |
| Detroit | -4 | -3.5 | -4 |
Original Model
Here’s a look at the contest records after week 16, it’s clear why I’ve changed both Circa Millions and the SuperContest to use the New Mexico system:
| Contest Results | Circa Million Qtrs 1-3 | SuperContest 1st half | DraftKings |
| Last week | 3-2 | ||
| Overall | 27-38 | 15-29-1 | 33-47 |
Original Model – Week 17 Picks
Here are the week 17 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| LA Rams | -6.5 |
| Carolina | +7.5 |
| Las Vegas | -1.5 |
| Green Bay | +0.5 |
| Atlanta | +4.5 |
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
