NFL Week 18 Best Bets
Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool
And just like that it’s 2025, Happy New Year everyone. The New Mexico model got back to its usual winning ways, going 3-2 in week 17. A couple of close calls, but Washington and Detroit pulled out the covers in the end. Week 17 also brought the end of the DraftKings pick ’em pool season long contests. The New Mexico model finished in the money at 113th position, not a large sum, but enough to nearly cover both entries in the contest. The New Mexico model also finished T-3 in the 2nd chance contest that DraftKings ran, so a decent ROI in that contest.
The Original Model did not perform well all season long. I switched from the Original Model to the New Mexico model for the 2nd half of the Westgate SuperContest. I then switched over the Circa Millions contest for the 4th quarter. New Mexico came close to showing in the 2nd half contest of the SuperContest, but a lackluster 4th quarter has impacted chances greatly. I’ll see what New Mexico can accomplish next year in both contests running for a full season.
New Mexico
The 3-2 result last week was business as usual for the New Mexico model. It averaged the 3-2 weekly result in the DraftKings contest which I ran out of picks on in week 16. So far it has produced a slightly better result in the SuperContest 2nd half with a 62.5% cover rate. All in all, a solid performance by the New Mexico model all around. I’ll be posting the playoff picks it recommends throughout the Super Bowl.
Here is a look at the New Mexico contest records through week 17:
| Contest Results | SuperContest 2nd half | DraftKings | Circa Millions 4th Qtr |
| Last week | 3-2 | 3-2 | |
| Overall | 25-15 | 48-32 | 11-9 |
New Mexico – Week 18 Picks
The Bengals and Steelers are rated 11th and 12th by the New Mexico model, so I expected a close line. The 12th spot is either average or above average, depending on how the curve is built. Either way, I’ll take the Bengals in this AFC North battle that will either have a lot or a little at stake. If Baltimore wins in the early game, Pittsburgh will probably rest most of its stars as they will be locked into position. However, if the Ravens lose, Pittsburgh can win the division with a win over Cincinnati. I don’t think the Ravens (19.5 point favorite) will lose, and expect a lot of Steelers backups in this game. The Bengals need to win to keep playoff hopes alive.
The Jaguars and Colts are both rated below average by the New Mexico model. Even before adding in the Colts look to have given up on the season with last weeks shit show at NY Giants, this line was too high. Jaguars coach Pederson is probably coaching his last game on the sidelines of Jacksonville, but he believes if he wins he will get one more season. His team has played tough the last few weeks, look for that to continue.
The NY Jets are a below average team before they gave up, and with last weeks performance it’s clear this team has thrown in the towel on the season. The Dolphins still have a small chance at the playoffs, but need to win to keep hopes alive. As an average rated team, the Dolphins should be a larger favorite that the current -1. I’ll take the better team on the thin chalk.
The Raiders have played well the last few weeks as it appears HC Pierce is fighting to keep his job for another year. If he had a better QB the season might’ve been different, but alas here we are in week 18 and Las Vegas is rated the 3rd worst team in the league. The Chargers are an average team, and even though the backups will probably play most of this game, they will still be the better coached team. And those backups will be trying to show they belong and get a bigger role somewhere next year. Look for the Chargers to roll again.
The game that matters the most is Minnesota at Detroit. Its for the NFC North and the number 1 seed in the playoffs. I have a future ticket on Detroit to win the NFC North and I want to cash that ticket, so I’m already cheering for Detroit because of that. However, New Mexico has the Lions rated the best team in the league, and only has the Vikings rated 10th. The Lions continue to play with a chip on their shoulder, determined to show they belong in the championship conversation. Look for Campbell and crew to come out firing on all cylinders in this game.
Here are the week 18 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest and Circa Millions Contests:
| Team | Super Contest line | Circa Millions line |
| Cincinnati | -1.5 | -2 |
| Jacksonville | +5 | +5 |
| Miami | -1 | -1 |
| LA Chargers | -5 | -4 |
| Detroit | -3 | -2.5 |
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
