Most Common NFL Point Variance
Analyzing the frequency of scoring differences in NFL games
Scoring in the NFL is unlike any other sport. For a touchdown you get 6 points, and the chance to go for an extra point or attempt a 2-point conversion. Most the time teams kick the extra point, making 7 points the most common outcome for touchdowns. Another way to score is by kicking a field goal for 3 points. With scoring built around the numbers of 3, 6 and 7, we should expect those numbers to be the common differences between 2 teams scores in a game.
Knowing how frequent games end on certain numbers can help in deciding which bets to make. While the line and score outcome don’t really have anything in common, knowing that a team wins/losses by 3 points nearly 15% of the every game can help you decide on which side of a bet to make. In this case it makes underdogs of +3.5 points , and favorites of -2.5 points more attractive. The below chart shows top score variances in games since 2017. You can see 3 points is nearly twice as common as any other number, followed by 7.
The score variance of 14 stands out to me in the chart below. After occurring over 7% of the time in 2023 the result fell to less than 2% of the games in 2024. With an overall average over 5% of games, I expect more blowouts in 2025.
Knowing this information can also help you understand if you should play the teams in a teaser or not, commonly known as the Wong Teaser. The Wong Teaser is about moving the line of teams through the most common outcomes of games, increasing the win probability. The Wong Teaser looks for lines of +1.5, +2, +2.5, -7.5, -8 and -8.5, and puts the teams matching the criteria in a 6-point teaser. The 6-point teaser will move those lines through the top 3 most common score outcomes of 3, 6 and 7. Talk about creating exceptional value. However, sportsbooks still offer them for a reason, so maybe don’t bet them blindly.
The other thing that jumps out about the most common numbers is that 8 of the top-10 most common numbers are for 1-score games. To get a better understanding of overall 1-score games vs 2+ score games, I created the above chart to show the year over year changes. The last 3 seasons have seen more 1-score games than average, but it also shows every 4th years have more 2+ score games with 2025 next in the cycle. It’s a very loose indicator, but with expecting more 14-points wins in 2025 it does make sense.
This is also good information to know for in game betting opportunities. They say the game always comes back towards the number in games, and this chart shows that the majority of games are 1-score games. So if you’re watching a blowout maybe take a shot on the underdog getting 8+ points and watch them make a 2-score game and make it a 1-score game.
