NFL Wild Card Best Bets

2025 NFL Playoff Picks

Another NFL season is behind us and we move on to the second season, the playoffs. I’m quite excited for these playoffs, with the future tickets I hold, I don’t have to try and force any action on sides or total bets. In June I placed NFC Championship tickets on Detroit, LA Rams and Philadelphia. I also placed a bet on each of those teams to win the Super Bowl. On the other side I placed AFC Championship bets on Buffalo, Baltimore and Houston. I placed a Super Bowl bet on Baltimore. All of this was outlined in the preseason magazine released in July, along with 7 of 8 division winning bets, its looking to be a profitable season for the magazine bets.

New Mexico

New Mexico closed the 2nd half of the season strong, going 4-1 in the SuperContest and 3-1-1 in the Circa Millions. The 2nd half performance in the SuperContest was close to placing in the weeks 10-18 mini-contest, finishing 3 points behind the winner. Will be back next season, running New Mexico in all 3 contests for the full season.

Here is a look at the final New Mexico contest records:

Contest Results	SuperContest 2nd half	DraftKings	Circa Millions 4th Qtr
Last week	4-1		3-1-1
Overall	29-16	48-32	14-10-1

New Mexico – Wild Card Picks

Now that the contests are behind us, it’s time to concentrate on some cash bets for the playoffs. The lines are from DraftKings.

LA Chargers -162 on the money line at Houston. The New Mexico model has these teams ranked 12th and 16th with the edge going to the Chargers. These rankings put Houston as average and the Chargers at the border of average and above average depending on how you cluster your teams. Both teams have a top-5 rated defense by New Mexico. The difference is on offense with the Texans rated 22nd and the Chargers rated 14th. I’ll also give the coaching advantage to the Chargers. Nothing against Houston’s HC Ryans, he’s a fine coach, but Harbaugh has been there before and knows what it takes to win.

Pittsburgh +9.5 at Baltimore. The Ravens are rated as the 3rd best team in the NFL in the New Mexico model, that’s either good or great depending on the top cluster size. The Steelers are ranked 14th, which is average, but makes sense given the end of season struggles including a 17 point loss to the Ravens. The difference between an average and a good or great team should be closer to 4-7 points, maybe even less given these are division rivals. I still think the Ravens win this game, but 9.5 is too many points and I’ll take the Steelers and the inflated line.

Denver +8.5 at Buffalo. Denver is ranked 5th by the New Mexico model, which is considered a good team. Buffalo is the 2nd ranked team by New Mexico, so they are considered great. The difference between good and great is not 8.5 points, it’s less than a field goal, so I’m ready to grab the inflated line for that purpose alone. But on top of that, the Bills strength is offense, which is rated the 2nd best by New Mexico while the defense is a glaring weakness ranked 18th. The Broncos have the 2nd ranked defense and the 6th ranked offense. Look for Buffalo’s offense to be slowed down in this game and for the Broncos to be able to match them in scores keeping this game close.

Green Bay +5.5 at Philadelphia. The New Mexico model has these teams ranked 7th and 8th or above average. This should be a pick ’em game, or maybe Philly laying a point or 2 depending if you use home field advantage. Either way you’re getting at least 3.5 points of value in the line, and that is too good to pass up. Look for this game to stay close.

• LA Charger -162 moneyline
• Pittsburgh +9.5
• Denver +8.5
• Green Bay +5.5

Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.