NFL Divisional Round Best Bets
2025 NFL Playoff Picks
That is not how I imagined the playoffs getting started for me. It was great seeing all the teams I hold Conference Championship and Super Bowl future tickets winning. But it was not great seeing them win by as much as they did, especially since 3 of my picks were on underdogs. The 2nd season continues this week with the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. There are 2 games each on Saturday and Sunday, which should make this cold weekend more enjoyable.
New Mexico – Divisional Round Matchups
Houston at Kansas City: Kansas City should be rested and ready to go after the team took week 18 off and had a bye in the wild card round. Houston surprised me last week with the offensive performance they put forward, and if they hadn’t turned the ball over so many times they would’ve scored a lot more. It was Houston’s defense that set the tone, and showed why the New Mexico model has the Texans defense rated 2nd in the league. Kansas City is rated 10th on offense, defense and overall by model. Houston has the 22nd ranked offense and 16th overall ranking. The overall rankings put Houston as average and Kansas City above average. That shouldn’t be an 8.5 point difference. I understand why oddsmakers would want to make the line what they did, and based on the betting splits at both DraftKings and Circa, they could’ve went a little higher. I’ll take the inflated value once again this weekend.
Washington at Detroit: The strength of both these teams is the offense, with New Mexico ranking Detroit with the top offense and Washington 3rd. Overall, Detroit is also rated number 1, but Washington slides to 4th based on the defense. The Lions are a great team and the Commanders are a good team. Once again there is inflated value on the underdog, and once again the betting splits show Detroit getting a lot of action. I expect Washington’s Cinderella story to come to an end soon, and most likely this game, but they will still put up one hell of a fight.
LA Rams at Philadelphia: Similar to the HOU at KC game, the New Mexico model has the LA Rams ranked 15th or average and the Eagles ranked 7th or above average. The Rams have almost same ranking as the Texans and the Eagles are ranked higher than KC, yet this line is 2.5 points less, how does that make any sense? This game is a perfect example of how much value there is with Houston. As for LAR at PHI, it’s like the other 2, a little juiced to the favorite, but unlike the other 2, not juiced enough to get my attention. Philadelphia has the top ranked defense in the league and the Rams are traveling across country on short rest after playing on MNF. I’m not sure LA can score enough to keep up with this team.
Baltimore at Buffalo: The 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in the New Mexico model square off in this game. There isn’t much that separates these 2 teams overall, but the Ravens are substantially better on defense. The Ravens defense did start the season slow, but they continuously improved throughout the season and are playing their best football right now. Despite New Mexico having Buffalo rated higher, I don’t think there is a hotter team in football right now than Baltimore.
New Mexico – Divisional Round Picks
I like to shop around for the best line, so I’ll highlight the shop I’m making my play.
- Houston +8.5 (-108) at FanDuel
- Washington +9.5 (-110) at MGM
- Baltimore -118 moneyline at DraftKings
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
