2025 Week 7 NFL Contest Picks
Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool
I suppose the week 6 performance is what I deserve for complaining about going 3-2 week after week. However, a 1-4 performance is simply devastating. Not only is it a gut punch of reality, but a slap to any chance to finishing in the money in the season long contests. After week 5, I was ranked 15th at DraftKings, 98th at Circa and 32nd at SuperContest. Following the 1-4 performance in week 6 I’m now ranked 156 at DraftKings, 572 at Circa and 132 at SuperContest.
It all started with the Eagles on TNF at NY Giants. Philadelphia gained 31 yards rushing on it’s first 2 plays of the game, and then couldn’t run the ball anymore. Not only did the Birds not cover, they didn’t even win the game. And Giants fans everywhere are smiling about the rookie combo of Dart and Skattebo. Philadelphia needs to figure out the offense quick and the defense needs to force some turnovers. And I need to get the Eagles off my weekly entries!!
After the TNF debacle the Sunday action started with Dallas. The Cowboys played a back and forth game against Carolina for 4 quarters, but the defenses inability to make a stop at the end cost them the game. That’s what happens when you have a poor defense and must play shootouts each week. Just ask Cincinnati.
It wasn’t a pleasant feeling entering the 4 o’clock games with an 0-2 record, but surely I could win out the last 3 and skate by with another 3-2 week. Tampa Bay was the survivor in the injury battle against San Francisco. Both teams have been bothered by injuries, but keep finding ways to win. QB Mayfield is playing out of his mind right now.
Detroit took the opening drive down the field and scored a touchdown on 4th and goal. While the kicking team was running onto the field, a flag was thrown and Detroit was called for an illegal shift. The Lions lost 5 yards and the touchdown. Detroit head coach Campbell claims the officials told him the penalty call came in from New York. The timing of the flag fits the narrative so I choose to agree with Campbells statement. I don’t want to say the game was fixed by the league office, but the Lions never recovered from that play and they didn’t cover the spread. With this loss, I was guaranteed my first losing week of the season.
I needed Buffalo on MNF to salvage my week and get me to 2-3. On Atlanta’s opening drive, RB Robinson fumbled and the Bills recovered. Unfortunately, Buffalo was called for offsides, and Atlanta got the ball back. They then went right down the field for a touchdown and never looked back. I wrote 1-4 in my notebook and went to bed. What a terrible fucking week.
Here is a look at the contest performance through week 6:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | DraftKings | SuperContest |
| Last Week: | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Overall: | 17-13 | 19-11 | 16-13-1 |
Week 7 picks
New Mexico model
Philadelphia travels to Minnesota, and I hate that this team is on the card again. This is not the time for the Eagles to be going against the 3rd rated defense in the league. However, for the Vikings, it’s a great time to have the Eagles by for a visit. Philadelphia’s defense is rated in the bottom 10 of the league, and have made worse offenses look good. The only hope is that Fangio can stir up some pressure that forces QB Darnold into mistakes. If not, it could be another long week for Eagles fans.
Cleveland is going with a youth movement and flashing success of it’s scouting department. However, the offense is still bottom 5 in the league, but could show signs of life against a Dolphins defense rated just as bad. On the other side of the ball for both teams is a bit of the same, with the Browns defense and the Dolphins offense being rated average. If anything, this should be a pick ’em game, or the better offense should be favored. Either way, the Dolphins hold value.
Despite having strong performances in back-to-back weeks, the New Mexico model still has the Carolina Panthers rated as a below average team. However, the New York Jets are rated as a poor team. And they are now dealing with lots of injuries on offense, which is depleting their depth. Not like the Jets have much offense to begin with. At one point during the game last week the Jets had 1 total yard of offense, but still had 6 points. The decision making at the end of the 1st half was also questionable. Can the Jets lose every game this season? It’s starting to look possible.
The Los Angeles Chargers have a top-10 rated defense according to the New Mexico model. The problem is the offense is rated 19th, and is losing skill players left and right after having o-line injuries to start the season. If this team can find a balance of health, they could be dangerous. But this week they get to host the number 1 rated team according to the model. The Colts run the most efficient offense and have a top-5 defense to go with it. I always say the best defense is less defense, and the Colts are proving that this year. The last trip to Sofi Stadium didn’t quite work out for Indianapolis. They get the bad taste out of their mouth with this visit.
Seattle continues to prove my preseason hypothesis on the team wrong each week. Well except that week I took them against Tampa Bay, but Mayfield Magic has done a number on a lot of teams this season. The model has Seattle rated as a balanced team with an offensive rating of 5th and a defensive rating of 9th. The Texans bring the 2nd rated defense to Seattle, but it won’t be much help in this game. Poor offensive lines don’t travel well in the NFL and that is exactly what Houston has, a poor o-line. The Texans attempted an overhaul of the o-line this offseason, but it’s not working out as expected.
Here are the week 7 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Circa line | DraftKings line | SuperContest line |
| Philadelphia | -1.5 | -2.5 | -1.5 |
| Miami | +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 |
| Carolina | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Indianapolis | +1.5 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Seattle | -3 | -3.5 | -3 |
Original Model
The original model went 2-3 in week 6. That brings its overall record to 19-11 on the season. The models aligned on the Bills last week, and they lost, so that puts aligned plays at 3-3 on the season. The systems are once again aligned on one pick this week, Miami. Hopefully the Dolphins can shed their losing streak along with the aligned model losing streak.
In a first of the season, their is a model-to-model matchup. I love it when this happens, as it’s a fun judge to which model is better. This week, New Mexico has selected Indianapolis while the original model has taken the Chargers.
Here are the week 7 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Miami | +2.5 |
| New Orleans | +5.5 |
| LA Chargers | -1.5 |
| San Francisco | -2.5 |
| Detroit | -4.5 |
