NFL Week 6 Best Bets

Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool

Week 5 results followed the same path as weeks 1-4, which isn’t good for me. I think my chances of placing in the money in any contest is all but finished. I will need to make a major push to have any chance. However, despite the poor result last week, I’m pretty optimistic. Yes, the record wasn’t good, but I feel I was 1 play away in each loss that I had a true shot at 5-0 last week. Optimism rains supreme here at gridiron gambler!!

The Jets went to London looking for redemption, but the offense continued to struggle and HC Saleh lost his job. I tweeted during the game that OC Hackett should be fired and forced to find his own way home from London, that didn’t happen, but the interim HC stripped Hackett of play calling duties. To me this game boiled down to the results of the 5th offensive drive for the Jets. Trailing 10-0 due to a Rodgers interception return for a touchdown, the Jets drove down the field and faced 4 & 2 from the MIN 26. Instead of kicking the field goal, Saleh went for it, the Jets didn’t convert and the Vikings took the subsequent drive 74 yards for a TD and a 17-point lead. That was a 10-point swing. Kicking the field goal would have removed MIN momentum instead of having a 4th down stop reignite the team. This also impacts the end of the game, when the Jets are down 6 instead of 3 and forced to get a TD instead of being able to kick a game tying field goal to force overtime. Perhaps Jets owner Johnson was right, Saleh’s decision making is not head coach material.

Jacksonville was a bit of a thriller. Everything was looking good with Jacksonville building a 10-point lead and having an answer for every Colts score. Then the Colts were able to get 14 points in less than 3 minutes and the game was tied. The Jags got the game winning field goal, but winning by 3 means I pushed in the SuperContest and not winning. A bit deflating.

Kicking and getting sure points is so important in the NFL that when the Rams missed the extra point on their 2nd touchdown, I marked that game down as a loss. Sure enough, it came back to haunt the team later in the 4th quarter when trailing 24-13 instead of 24-14. After scoring the 4th qtr TD, the Rams were now forced to go for 2-points instead of 1 to make it a field goal game. They didn’t convert, and now they are down 5 instead of 3. This forced them to go for the 4th & 5 at the GB 36 instead of attempting a game tying field goal and forcing overtime. I didn’t need that final field goal or overtime, I just needed the kicker to do his job and make the extra point attempts.

After hours of delays due to inclement weather, the Steelers and Cowboys played both a boring yet exciting game. Most of the scoring came in the 4th quarter, and the Steelers had a real chance to win the game. Pittsburgh was up 17-13 with less than a minute to play, all they need is a defensive stop and the game is over. On 2nd and goal the Steelers force a fumble, but are unable to recover. Recover the ball and the game is over, give QB Prescott 2 more chances and trouble is bound to come. Sure enough on 4th & goal, Prescott found WR Tolbert for the game winning TD, and a losing weekend was guaranteed.

On MNF the Kansas City defense took control of the New Orleans offensive line just like I expected. DL Jones was as disruptive as ever, and the Chiefs forced Saints QB Carr out of the game with an oblique strain. Kansas City went on to a boring 13-point win, and stand at 5-0 despite all of the injuries to key playmakers.

Here’s a look at the contest records after week 5, maybe I have a shot at the Circa boobie prize after all:

Contest Performance	Circa Millions	SuperContest	DraftKings
Last week	2-3	1-3-1	2-3
Overall	10-15	9-15-1	10-15

Week 6 Picks

After pulling off the upset on the road at division rival San Francisco, Arizona must travel across the country to play at Green Bay this week. A nice soft spot in the schedule to fade the visiting team. While the Packers defense gives up yards/points early, they manage to settle down in the 2nd half and force a turnover or 2. Look for Green Bay to take advantage of Arizona in the 4th quarter, and pull away with a 2-score win.

New England has made the switch to rookie QB Maye, and get a 4-1 Houston team at home. I think the record is a bit misleading for Houston, as they have struggled offensively this season more than people realize. Now WR1 Collins is on the IR with a hamstring injury. Yes, they traded for Diggs in the offseason and still have Dell and Schultz, but Collins is the top dog of the group and he will be missed. The only game Houston played this year that wasn’t a 1-score game was week 3 at Minnesota and the Texans lost big in that game. Look for another close game this week at New England.

The lines on the Cleveland games are starting to get out of hand, but until their offense can show any signs of life, this is the Browns reality. Philadelphia comes in rested off an early season bye. The Eagles aggressive defensive front should have a field day against the banged up Browns offensive line and a flat footed QB Watson, who leads the league in sacks taken. The Eagles should also get some offensive help with the wide receiver room getting healthy, and I expect RB Barkley to have another big game. Look for Philly to roll.

The Titans are a team that have a chance in every game until a costly mistake is made. After an early season bye to help learn from those mistakes, I expect Tennessee to show more explosiveness of offense. The Colts have a hard time stopping anybody on defense, and just gave up 34 points to a lifeless Jaguars offense. I don’t put too much stock in the last week, but the defense has allowed worse opponents to score more points. I’ll take the Titans at home.

The Falcons are playing some exciting football right now, and the offense really seems to be hitting its stride. The problem is the defense is not doing much to help this team win. All 5 of the Falcons games have been 1-score games this season, and they’ve needed end of game heroics the last 2 weeks at home. The Panthers have not had a great season, but the offense has been improved with QB Dalton leading the way. Look for Carolina to bounce back at home against a struggling defense after facing a strong defense on the road last week.

Here are the week 6 contest picks:

Team	Circa Millions line	SuperContest line	DraftKings line
Green Bay	-4.5	-5	-5.5
New England	+7	+7	+6.5
Philadelphia	-10	-8.5	-8.5
Tennessee	-2.5	+1	+0.5
Carolina	+6	+6	+5.5

New Mexico

Last week the new system I’m working on went 2-3 in the 5 games it identified. That brings New Mexico to a season record of 12-13, which is an improvement on the original system so far through 5 weeks.

The head-to-head matchup between the 2 systems still favors the original system with a record of 3-2. I’m really enjoying the battle between these 2 systems. A season long result can help me figure out how to blend the 2 systems together, creating a hybrid version that helps identify games to avoid because of cross contamination. Knowing which games to avoid is better than knowing which games to bet. Eliminating some of the noise and concentrating on a handful of games can be prosperous.

There are 3 more head-to-head matchups between the 2 systems this week with split opinion on: Arizona at Green Bay, Cleveland and Philadelphia and Indianapolis at Tennessee.

Unfortunately, the game that both systems agreed on, Pittsburgh, was a loss. However, as pointed out in game recap above, it was 1 play away from being a win, so I’m not going to discount the partnerships yet.

Here are the week 6 picks for New Mexico:

• Washington +7
• Arizona +5.5
• Cleveland +9.5 – I don’t know why New Mexico likes Cleveland so much, it has flagged this team as a play almost every week, yet the offense continues to underperform.
• Indianapolis +3
• Pittsburgh -3

Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.