NFL Week 7 Best Bets

Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool

I’ve reached the point where I’m ready to just do the opposite of what my system says. If I’d have done the opposite so far I’d be at 19-11 with a 63.3% win rate, fantastic. But I’m not, I’m the opposite of that. There is still a lot of football to play, we’re not even into the 2nd half of the season yet. Week 7 marks the start of another 3-week mini-contest for the SuperContest, so maybe things turn around now. Winning a 3-week mini-contest would guarantee a profit on the season.

Unlike week 5, there was no path to 5-0 in week 6. The best I could’ve done was 3-2, but the cards didn’t fall my way, and I got another disappointing 1-4 week. Before getting to the week 7 picks, here is a recap of the week 6 plays.

The Packers had full control over Arizona from the start. The defense never allowed the Cardinals offense to get going. It helped the WR Harrison Jr missed most of the game with a concussion.

In the first start of QB Maye’s career, the New England offense did look better. They took shots down the field, which spread the defense and opened up the run game. The bad news is the defense never showed up, and the Texans hit the OVER by themselves. I guess Houston didn’t miss WR Collins as much as I thought they would.

The Eagles should have covered this game. I also had Philadelphia in survivor pools, and that made me more nervous than I should have been. However, the Eagles defense shut down the Browns offense and only allowed 9 points. The cover was decided by the Philadelphia field goal attempt that was blocked and returned for a Cleveland touchdown. That was a 10-point swing play, and the deciding factor against the spread. Eagles should have won 23-9, an easy win and cover, not 20-16.

The Titans got me again. I wrote them off earlier in the season, but let myself be convinced they could keep it close against the banged up Colts. To be fair, Tennessee did hold a 7-point lead at the end of the 3rd quarter, but they couldn’t close out the game in the 4th, allowing QB Flacco to win another one for Indy.

The Panthers kept it close with Atlanta for most of the game. Carolina was able to answer every Atlanta score with a score of their own. In the 4th quarter, down by 8, Carolina was driving and had a chance to kick a field goal and get back to covering the spread. Unfortunately, QB Dalton threw an interception, and the Falcons went right back down the field to score another touchdown. Game over!

Here’s a look at the contest records after week 6, my chances of winning the Circa boobie prize is increasing by the week.

Contest Performance	Circa Millions	SuperContest	DraftKings
Last week	1-4	1-4	1-4
Overall	11-19	10-19-1	11-19

Week 7 Picks

Green Bay continues to impress, and the offense seems to get better each week. QB Love is really starting to come into his own, and spreads the ball around to his many receiving options. I’ll continue to back Green Bay and fade Houston at the same time.

Despite the double digit win last week at Carolina, the Atlanta defense continues to struggle to slow down opponents. Seattle has 3 extra days rest after losing to San Francisco on TNF, and lots of offensive weapons to take advantage of a poor defense. Look for them to keep it close in Atlanta.

Miami is coming off a bye week, which should help with QB Huntley’s preparation while they await the return of Tua. Miami was a 1 point favorite in this game in the preseason, and I know the offense hasn’t looked the best, but with more time to prepare and all of the weapons available, this offense should put up points this week. I’ll take Miami and continue to fade the overachieve Colts who give the keys back to Richardson this week after 2 straight wins with Flacco leading the way.

The Eagles are looking good this season, and despite many WR injuries, the offense has put up enough points to win some games. However, the offense is still trying to find their identity, and doing so against a tough division opponent won’t be easy. The Giants should get WR Nabers back from concussion this week, to help the offense even more. Look for the Giants to keep this close at home.

In a Super Bowl rematch, Kansas City comes in 5-0, and before the big win in Seattle on TNF people were wondering what was happening with San Francisco. However, this is a game that the 49ers have had circled since the schedule came out. I expect them to be laser focused for this game. San Francisco gives Kansas City their first loss of the season.

Here are the week 7 contest picks:

Team	Circa Millions line	SuperContest line	DraftKings line
Green Bay	-2.5	-3	-2.5
Seattle	+3	+2.5	+3.5
Miami	+3	+3	+3.5
NY Giants	+3.5	+3	+3.5
San Francisco	-1.5	-1.5	-1.5

New Mexico

Last week the new system I’m working on went 3-1-1 in the 5 games it identified. That brings New Mexico to a season record of 15-14-1, which is performing much better than the 11-19 original system.

There were 3 more head-to-head matchups last week between New Mexico and the original system, and based on the weekly records, I bet you can tell which one did better. New Mexico went 2-1 in the head-to-head games, and that means the systems are now 4-4 in head-to-head competition. I’ve started exploring what I can do to blend the systems together, but it’s going to be a lot of work.

There are 2 more head-to-head matchups this week in the Seattle at Atlanta and Miami at Indianapolis. The original system likes the dogs while New Mexico is taking the home favorites. Both systems agree on San Francisco, so I’m probably going to go a little heavy on that play myself.

Here are the week 7 picks for New Mexico:

• Atlanta -3
• Indianapolis -3
• Detroit +1.5
• San Francisco -2

Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.