NFL Week 5 Best Bets

Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool

We’ve reached the quarter pole in the 2024 NFL season. Injuries are really starting to impact teams performance. The underdogs have been crushing it so far, so it’s not a surprise to see that the market has adjusted with less points being given to the dogs in week 5. This is also the start of teams having bye weeks, with 4 teams on bye in week 5 there are 2 less games to choose from.

Last week Atlanta pulled out an instant classic against the Saints at home. This game was a prime example of why getting the best price or line is important. If you grabbed Atlanta early in the week at -1.5, you were cashing tickets. Same if you grabbed New Orleans at the end of the week at +2.5 or +3. Maybe you got lucky and hit both. I was squeezed hard on this one, with DKNG have -1.5 in there contest, but Circa and Westgate having -2.5. I caught New Orleans at +3 using my new system New Mexico. So I won and lost, but now my records in all 3 contests are the same.

In Green Bay, the Vikings took opening drive down the field for 7 points. Then Green Bay marched right back down the field before stalling out in the red zone, and the kicker doinking the field goal off the right upright. Kicking and getting points are so important in the NFL that I wrote down a big L next to Green Bay after that missed kick. It seemed inevitable after Minnesota stretched the lead to 28-0, but Green Bay made it a game in the 2nd half, ultimately falling short though. Too many mistakes and missed opportunities for the Packers, but Minnesota is vulnerable.

The Bears defensive front took care of business, and the offense traded touchdowns for field goals against the Rams. This was the one early game that I wasn’t as worried about. I could use a few more games like this in the future.

I’m not sure what happened in the desert, but Arizona was not ready to play against the red hot Commanders last week. QB Daniels looks like Stroud from last year, what is it with the 2nd QB taken the last few years? Washington’s defense forced some punts, finally, and the offense kept up its dominating performance. This game was also over early but Washington offense kept foot on the gas as OC Kingsbury took out some aggression on his former employer.

With a 1-3 record heading into SNF, I desperately needed a Baltimore win and cover. Fortunately, the Ravens came through and Buffalo continued to struggle with championship contenders. The signing of RB Henry is looking like best thing since sliced bread, and this offense is really clicking. My Baltimore Super Bowl winner tickets keep looking better and better.

Here’s a look at the contest records after week 4, it was a terrible first quarter:

Contest Performance	Circa Millions	SuperContest	DraftKings
Last week	2-3	2-3	3-2
Overall	8-12	8-12	8-12

Week 5 Picks

The NFL returns to London in week 5 with NY Jets vs Minnesota. Last time we saw these 2 teams they were heading in opposite directions with QB Rodgers towel over his head becoming a meme and Minnesota jumping out to a commanding lead at Green Bay. However, no team is as bad nor good as the last time you saw them, and I expect NY Jets to fully turn things around this week, and send the Vikings home with first loss of the season.

I expected much more from Jacksonville this season, and am as surprised by the 0-4 start as anyone else. However, as the last winless team in the NFL, I expect Jacksonville to have a high sense of urgency this week and finally get their first W of the season. It helps that Indianapolis will be without RB Taylor in this game.

Last week I was against the Rams, and this week I’m taking them as a home dog against the Packers. The play last week was built around the Bears aggressive defensive front 7 vs the Rams injured o-line. However, this is the first week a Rams o-lineman is not on the injury report, and they are starting to build some cohesiveness there to protect Stafford. The Packers defense has not been good for the last few years, and if they aren’t forcing turnovers this year they aren’t doing much. Look for RB Williams to have a BIG day for the Rams.

Despite taking the L last week, Pittsburgh still looks amazing, and they get a struggling Dallas team this week. The Cowboys defense is struggling under the new coordinator, and clear miss Washington HC Quinn on that side of the ball. Injuries to key players are not going to help this defense improve. This should allow the Steelers offense to continue to improve, and really take control of the game. I’ll take the Steelers on SNF.

Turning to the MNF slate for the 5th pick, I’m going with the last undefeated team that is struggling with injuries. The Chiefs are in the news for all the wrong reasons with star players getting hurt and being out for an extended period of time. However, I’m considering their opponent here, and the Saints are completely vulnerable. The Eagles laid the blueprint on how to stop the Saints offense completely. The Falcons were able to slow down the run, but not enough pressure on Carr to stop the pass. The Chiefs have a defensive front that is built like the Eagles, and probably the best disrupter in the league with DL Jones leading the way. I expect the Chiefs aggressive defense to make like very difficult for the Saints on MNF, while the offense does what it always does, finds a way to score 20+ points and get the win.

Here are the week 5 contest picks:

Team	Circa Millions line	SuperContest line	DraftKings line
NY Jets	+2.5	+2.5	+2.5
Jacksonville	-2.5	-3	-2.5
LA Rams	+3.5	+3	+3.5
Pittsburgh	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5
Kansas City	-5.5	-5.5	-5.5

New Mexico

Last week the new system I’m working on identified 4 games with value and worth a play, and went 3-1. That brings New Mexico to a season record of 10-10.

Last week New Mexico was on the opposite side of the original system in 2 games. Those games split with New Orleans covering and winning for New Mexico and LA Rams losing both SU and ATS. This week the systems disagree on official play of New Orleans at Kansas City, but there are 2 other games that I’ve left off but meet the criteria for each system. Cleveland is highlighted as a play in my original system, and Washington a play for New Mexico. I left Cleveland off the play list because of the lackluster offensive performance this year, and inability to match Washington.

The other disagreement came on TNF of Tampa Bay at Atlanta. The original system was all over the Falcons while New Mexico loved Tampa Bay. Since I wasn’t ready to make a decision on the other 4 games yet, I decided to just leave this play off all cards and see what happened. Well an amazing game is what happened, and the original system was the winner. That brings the current head-to-head system matchup of 2-1 in favor of the original system, but with 2 games to play this weekend anything can happen.

The 2 systems agree on Pittsburgh, and based on the eye test I completely agree as the Cowboys defense clearly misses Quinn as the defensive coordinator, and now they are dealing with lots of injuries. Here are the week 5 picks for New Mexico:

• Buffalo +1
• Washington -3.5
• Arizona +7.5
• Pittsburgh -3
• New Orleans +5.5

Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.