2025 Week 9 NFL Contest Picks
Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool
Well, that didn’t work out as good as I thought. I don’t normally use the TNF game as part of my contest selections, but I needed to win week 8 because so many teams were on bye. Also, lots of shitty matchups with terrible lines. And honestly who can get a read on the Dolphins these days. I know the New Mexico model liked them in week 8, but after the shit show of week 7 I couldn’t pull the trigger. That cost me a win and my winning week. After starting off 1-0 with the LA Chargers win on TNF, I went 1-3 on Sunday for a 2-3 week overall.
I entered last week ranked 50 at DraftKings, 281 at Circa and 56 at SuperContest. I then went 2-3 in week 8, and took a ride down the loser slide in the standings. Now I’m sitting 88 at DraftKings, 527 at Circa and 93 at SuperContest. While that’s not as bad as where I was 2 weeks ago, it doesn’t help my cashing out cause.
Here is a look at the contest performance through week 8:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | DraftKings | SuperContest |
| Last Week: | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Overall: | 23-17 | 25-15 | 22-17-1 |
Week 9 picks
New Mexico model
Before the season I made OVER 7.5 wins and AFC South division winner bets on the Colts. I was a believer in June of what this team could accomplish with the additions of QB Jones and TE Warren (copies still available, and now on sale!). The model is also a fan of the Colts and has them rated with the number 2 offense and number 6 defense, which is good enough for top rating overall. The Steelers are an above average team, but the defense struggles to stop any offense with a pulse. The Colts have more than a pulse.
Houston was another team the New Mexico model liked last week that I couldn’t pull the trigger on. This is a reminder on why you build models in the first place, remove emotion from selection process. People, myself included, are stupid and let emotion cloud their judgement. I let my preseason love of San Francisco and hatred of Houston impact my ability to pick a winner. Once again, Houston is favored against another team I thought highly of in the preseason, Denver. My inclination was to ignore again, but fool my once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Houston probably loses this game, but at least I showed discipline and followed the model.
I noted last week how New England is getting things going on both side of the football, and I expect that to continue again this week. The model has the Falcons rated as a Bad football team. It also has the Patriots rated as an above average football team on the verge of being a good football team. The difference between these types of teams is greater than 5.5, depending on how much you adjust for home field.
The Seahawks were red hot before they went on bye last week. The Commanders are extremely injured and could use a week off to get everyone healthy and back on the field. QB Daniels should be back for Washington this week, but will it be enough to pull the upset? The model has the Commanders as a below average team, close to bad. It also has Seattle rated as an above average team, just missing out on a good classification. The line should be bigger, but again the amount could vary depending on home field adjustment.
Last week I noted how the Cowboys defense would probably struggle to stop the Broncos offense. Yet, I made them a pick anyway because the New Mexico model loves the Cowboys offense. And putting up 24 points on the 2nd rated defense did nothing to change the models opinion about the Cowboys offense, and it still has them rated 1st overall. Most of this is attributable to the ability of finishing drives in the end zone, especially when they get in the red zone. The Cardinals have an average offense and a below average defense. While they should be able to get some things going against the poor Cowboys defense, I’m not sure they will be able to keep up in what should be the highest scoring game of the week.
Here are the week 9 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Circa line | DraftKings line | SuperContest line |
| Indianapolis | -3 | -3.5 | -3 |
| Houston | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| New England | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5 |
| Seattle | -3 | -3.5 | -3 |
| Dallas | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
Original Model
The original model is sinking fast. After back-to-back 2-3 weeks, the original model went 1-4 in week 8. That brings its overall record to 22-18 on the season.
The models didn’t align on any picks in week 8, so the season performance still stands at 3-4. The models are aligned on 2 plays this week, New England and Indianapolis. Hopefully the original model gets back on track and alignment plays get back to winning ways.
The original model leads the way in head-to-head matchups, although it is only 1-0. While the Jaguars aren’t an official New Mexico model play, they were close. The model likes them a lot this week. The original model likes the Raiders. So it’s not an official head-to-head matchup, I will be keep a close eye on this game.
Here are the week 9 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Cincinnati | +2.5 |
| New England | -5.5 |
| Indianapolis | -3.5 |
| LA Chargers | -9.5 |
| Las Vegas | +3.5 |
