NFL Survivor 2025 Week 7
Probably the most popular football contest ever, Survivor only requires you to pick 1 game winner each week. The catch, you can’t use the same team twice. Here are some different strategies that I’m applying each week, and of course the teams I expect to win.
DraftKings Pools offers multiple NFL Survivor contests each season with entry fees ranging from $10 to $1,000. If I’m going to enter a $1,000 Survivor contest, it would be the Circa Survivor, which pays out $15 million to the winner. I haven’t had as much success with survivor as I have with pick ’em pools, so I stay to the $10 and $100 entries. This year, I have 40 entries in the $10 pool (winner gets $1.2 million) and 3 entries in $100 contest (winner gets $900 thousand). They are also running 2nd and 3rd chance survivor pools that I will enter and follow similar strategies as outlined below.
Option Strategy
The option strategy requires a user to make a contest entry on both sides of a game. This will ensure that 1 entry moves on to the next week. However, it also means 1 entry will be eliminated. It is a good strategy to use early in the season. It allows you to get a better understanding of each team, avoid the early upsets and save good teams for later in the season.
I’ve decided not to run the option strategy for the next few weeks. Hopefully I’m able to take 2 of the top teams identified by the New Mexico model to keep all options open moving forward. This will allow me to use the option strategy one more time later if caught in a tough week.
New Mexico Strategy
The New Mexico strategy is a selection of teams using the New Mexico pick ’em model. I use this model for against the spread predictions, and this season I’m running it in the Circa Millions and Westgate SuperContest. I will start with the teams it likes to win big, and then consider if they are home/away or playing a divisional opponent.
The Colts nearly got taken down by Arizona and backup QB Brissett. Fortunately, they survived with a 4 point victory, and I moved on to another week with a few of my picks. The rest of the picks were never in doubt as Green Bay took care of Cincinnati. I was a little nervous after the addition of QB Flacco for the Bengals. You never know how a veteran QB will impact a team with 2 of the best wide receivers in the league. The 3 days before the Green Bay game weren’t enough to get the dub, but 10 days later the Bengals were able to take down Pittsburgh on TNF. The Bengals will be live dogs moving forward, beware going against them each week.
This week the majority of the entries will be on the Kansas City Chiefs at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. I don’t like using division opponents, and the Raiders recent success in Kansas City makes me nervous. However, the return of WR Worthy completely changes this offense. The Chiefs defense is also top notch and Kansas City is rated 3rd overall in the New Mexico model. The Raiders are the 28th rated team. The Chiefs should win easily.
The rest of my entries will go on the Seattle Seahawks on MNF against Houston Texans. The model has the Seahawks rated as a good team, while Houston is rated as average. Most of the strength of the Texans rating is due to the 2nd rated defense. The Texans offense is rated 22nd by the New Mexico model, and shouldn’t expect much improvement going against the 9th rated Seahawks defense. Seahawks win big on Monday night.
What teams are you taking this week and why? Let me know in the comments.
