NFL 2025 Week 7 TNF
Thursday Night Football
NFL week 7 gets started with the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to the Cincinnati Bengals. This game will feature two quarterbacks in their 40’s leading the way for their teams. The Bengals are trying to unlock some Joe Flacco magic to take them on a run and keep them playoff relevant until Burrow can return. Meanwhile the Steelers have exceeded my expectations so far, and Rodgers has his sights on another Super Bowl.
The New Mexico models has the Steelers rated 8th overall. This is from having a balanced offensive and defensive ratings. Despite the rough start for the Steelers defense, they have bounced back to have the 9th rated defense according to the New Mexico model. I wasn’t sure what to expect from the Steelers this season. I wasn’t sure how Rodgers and OC Smith would gel together, but if they keep playing/improving throughout the season, the Steelers could be Super Bowl contenders. They are already in the drivers seat for the AFC North, and with injuries to Ravens QB Jackson to go with Burrows injury, the Steelers need to take advantage of this time and extend the lead with wins.
The New Mexico model does not think so highly of the Bengals. Despite having 2 of the best WR’s in the league, they have struggled to get them the ball. The model has the Bengals offense rated 30th and the defense rated 28th. That is good for the 30th overall ranking. Yes, there is a strong chance that QB Flacco improves the offensive play. But there is also the chance that an older/slower/statue like Flacco get sacked a lot behind a poor offensive line. The range of possibilities is quite large.
Overall the New Mexico model has the Steelers rated above average and the Bengals rated as bad/poor depending on the cluster size. This means the line should be closer to 6 points, but can be influenced by the amount adjusted for homefield.
The original model favors the Bengals. It sees the line as inflated on the Steelers simply due to perception. The original model suggests the Flacco acquisition is a large improvement for the offense, and with him having more than 3 days to learn and offense and play a game, expects improved performance in this game.
Based on the models split performance, and the large range of outcomes they indicate, I will pass on a play on either side tonight. Instead I will turn my attention to the total. The Steelers defense has shown the ability to allow big plays, and lots of points. Especially against teams with a good receiving group. If Flacco can ignite some big plays, and keep this game close, it could turn into a shootout. We know the Bengals defense is poor, and the Steelers offense is strong, so points are expected from Pittsburgh. The total will all come down to the Bengals offense, and I think they will show up. I’ll take OVER 44.5 the total points in tonight’s game at DraftKings. I’m also going to play the Steelers team total OVER 23.5.
