2023 NFL Hot Seat Coaches
Each year there are a number of teams that decide to go in a different direction than the current head coach. There are multiple reasons why this happens, but the biggest is recency bias. What have you done for me lately is a common question in the NFL. It is a league that is all about results, and you’re only as good as your most recent season.
With that said, I’m going to use the Current Head Coaches dashboard that I used previously in my Best Head Coaches column. The dashboard is available on my tableau public page, but doesn’t work unless you’re signed in, don’t worry it’s free.
I’ll use the year over year (YoY) win rates for most of this analysis, but I will also lean on playoff win % as well. I won’t be using the career win % chart at all, because this is all about recency, and if you’re not winning now, I don’t care what you did before, Matt LaFleur. Really all that matters is if you’re line is moving up or down.
Kevin Stefanski – Cleveland
Going down the list in alphabetical order , and Kevin Stefanski is the first name that jumps out at me. His YoY win rate is clearly heading in the wrong direction.
Expectations were sky high in 2021 following a playoff appearance and playoff win in 2020. The Baker and OBJ relationship fell apart quickly, and no matter how good the team ran the ball they couldn’t pass for shit. The owner then bets the franchise on Deshaun Watson, who missed most of 2022 for suspension. After returning Watson looked like a guy that hadn’t played in over a year and a half. The hype for 2023 is already starting, but the caveat is always Watson. Will he return to form of 2020 and prior years? Can Stefanski build an offense that keeps Watson happy? The owner is all in on Watson, so if Stefanski can’t get it done in 2023, look for someone else on the sidelines in 2024
Matt LaFleur – Green Bay
This shouldn’t be a surprise given his mention earlier in this post, but Matt LaFleur is next on the hot seat. Yes, last year was his first losing season, I understand, but there is more than just winning in the regular season. Especially when you have Aaron Rodgers as your QB, and play in a soft division. The wheels completely fell off the wagon in 2022 for LaFleur, and now he has to win with an unproven QB.
If you look at the Playoff win % chart, you’ll see that Matt LaFleur is close to the bottom of the results with a 40% win rate. That says a lot about his ability to lead when times are tough. Getting to the playoffs is great, but if you can’t win there, does it really fucking matter? No it doesn’t, the playoffs are everything.
This year Green Bay is giving Jordan Love the chance to prove that he is the next franchise QB. He recently signed an extension, so he has 2 years to prove it. But what if his first year is just that bad? What if LaFleur is terrible, and the Packers were saved by Rodgers all this time? If Green Bay has a terrible season, and lands the top pick in the draft, with a chance to get Caleb Williams, they would be fools to not move on from Jordan Love. They should also move on from LaFleur at the same time.
Mike Vrabel – Tennesse
It pains me to put Vrabel on this list. He is a coach that I’m a fan of, and I believe he gets his teams to overachieve each year. However, his win rate is on the downward trend after a disaster of a 2022 season. Anything and everything that could go wrong last year did go wrong. The GM was fired in the middle of the season, so perhaps all blame was placed on his lap, but only time will tell.
I previously mentioned how important it is to win in the playoffs, and Vrabel does struggle in that area. He too has a 40% win rate in the playoffs, and has 2 season where his team did not make the playoffs. The Titans have a new GM in 2023, and traded up in the 2nd round to draft a QB. I’m not sure the expectations on Levis to play in 2023, but if the Titans struggle again, and Vrabel doesn’t have the youngster ready, we could see the house cleaning in Nashville to continue.
Ron Rivera – Washington
Last but not least, Ron Rivera. Ron is actually my personal favorite to get fired. I have a feeling he doesn’t make it through the season. I know there is a lot of fanfare around this guy because of what he did in Carolina, but let’s be honest, the YoY chart tells a completely different story.
You see that? He’s had 3 winning seasons in the past 10 years, and has never had a winning season while coaching Washington. Rivera was lucky that Dan Snyder was under a microscope, and he was considered the guy holding everything together. However, there is a potential sale of the Washington franchise looming, and would a new owner want to carry dead weight? No, he’ll want to clean house just like new owners did in Denver last year, and Denver had a first year head coach. If the Washington sale goes through, and they start slow to the season, look for Rivera to be the first coach fired.
