NFL Fast Start Teams

Using weekly Year over Year Performance

Each NFL week 1 season holds surprises that few people can predict, but there are a few teams that you can rely on early in each season. These are the fast start teams, and they usually have good coaching that know what it takes to win in the NFL. To continuously start the NFL season ahead of everyone else means the coaches understand preparation.

To find the teams that start fast each year, I built 2 dashboards showing a teams performance for the 2017-2022 seasons by week. I looked at it for both game and spread results, but put each on there own page. The Year over Year performance dashboard is available on my tableau public page, but you need to sign in for it to work correctly. I created this dashboard using the seasonality charts that are typical in corporate America, but replaced months with the NFL weeks.

Using the 2 dashboards, I’ve highlighted the teams that typically get off to a fast start below. There aren’t many to talk about, more teams get off to slow starts, but I’ll get to those next week. Not surprisingly, the teams that typically win early, also cover early in the season.

Game Winners

Baltimore

It’s unbelievable what Baltimore has been able to do in week 1, and the chart showing there performance stands out above all others. Over the past 6 season the Ravens have won week 1 by an average of 25 points. The week 2 results are a closer, and week 3 turns negative, but there is no denying that John Harbaugh has the Ravens ready to play week 1.

Kansas City

Kansas City doesn’t have a week 1 win average better than Baltimore, but winning by 13 points isn’t easy either. Unlike Baltimore, KC keeps that momentum going in weeks 2, 3 and 4 with average winning margin of 6, 6 and 9. It’s not until week 5, which seems to be a regular road trip, that KC is ready for a loss.

LA Rams

The LA Rams are just behind KC with consistent starts in the first 3 weeks. They win week 1 by an average of 10 points followed by 11 points and 6 points in weeks 2 and 3. Week 4 looks like a typical soft spot for them with week 5 going either way, but weeks 6 and 7 are positive. Week 7 does look like the best week for them, but the wheels fall off after that.

Philadelphia

Philly is a bit more like Baltimore in that you can count on them in week 1. After week 1, it’s not such a certainty, but this team is ready to play to open the season. That success spans 2 coaches, so that says a lot about the organization and the players they have.

Covers the Spread

ATS intro

Baltimore

The Baltimore ATS chart looks almost identical to the game results chart. You can count on this team in week 1 to not just win, but to cover and cover by a lot. I suspect this was due to the physical nature of the run first offense they deployed over the years. If you don’t bring the physical play in training camp, the team won’t bring it in week 1.

Buffalo

Buffalo makes an appearance on the ATS fast start list, but this isn’t because of week 1 results. In fact, you should probably avoid backing this team in week 1, and wait until week 2 before you start backing them. Buffalo looks like a team that is ready to cover some spreads in weeks 2-4. I wonder if week 1 overreactions to Buffalo struggles sets them up nicely the next few weeks before the public jumps back on. Something to keep in mind.

Kansas City

We already know that KC wins early and often, but what about putting money in your pocket? Well week 1 looks just as consistent ATS as it does for the game, but I would suggest staying away from KC games after that. The average results indicate coin flip ATS results, and I like a little more assurance than 50/50.

LA Rams

The LA Rams make a second appearance, and just like winning games, they typically cover in weeks 1-3. They cool off a bit in weeks 4-6 before bouncing back in week 7. It’s hard to consistently win early in this league, but to cover too, hats off to Sean McVay.

I need to find out more information about what’s going on with the LA Rams this season, and will do so as I start breaking down each team for the preseason magazine. But last years result, and the offseason team changes give me some pause on them for now. With that said, I think I can fully recommend a week 1 money line parlay of Baltimore, Kansas City and Philadelphia. I’m not a big parlay fan, and don’t like recommending those plays, but the data says it’s money in the bank.