NFL Slow Start Teams

Using weekly Year over Year Performance

Last week I wrote about the NFL teams that get off to a fast start on a regular basis. This week I completed a similar exercise, but this time looking for teams that get off to a slow start. These are good teams to fade at the start of the season, especially if they have some preseason hype.

I used the same 2 dashboards as last week. The dashboard shows the YoY team performance for the 2017-2022 seasons by week. I looked at it for both game and spread results, but put each on there own page. The Year over Year performance dashboard is available on my tableau public page, but you need to sign in for it to work correctly. I created this dashboard using the seasonality charts that are typical in corporate America, but replaced months with the NFL weeks.

Based on the results in the dashboard, here are the teams that typically get off to slow starts to the season.

Game Losers

Indianapolis

This is all about week 1 for Indianapolis. There hasn’t been a weaker week 1 team than the Colts over the last 6 years. I think this was a result of not being physical in preseason preparation. This was demonstrated in the Detroit Lions Hard Knocks episode that showed the join practice between the teams. In those highlights, you saw Detroit dominating Indy in drills, just pushing them around and being more physical. Reich is a conservative guy that appears to be more about finesse than physicality, which is a shame given the o-line the Colts had over those years, but I guess this is why he is no longer the Colts head coach. I wonder what is happening in Carolina’s camp this year.

Miami

This chart for Miami represents what I like to call an underperforming asset. It’s clear the head coach selection criteria in Miami needs to be evaluated. To be fair the 2022 results were the best results for the 6 year period, so perhaps Mike McDaniel can help change things down there. Although I’m not sure it’s McDaniel that’s making the difference, I think it was the arrival of Tyreke Hill. His speed can make any team better, something to keep in mind for 2023.

NY Giants

The NY Giants have a similar chart to Miami, with new head coach Daboll bringing best results in 2022. Of any recent new hires, I’d consider Daboll the one to make the biggest difference, and don’t expect 2022 to be a 1 hit wonder. The team doesn’t quite have the talent it needs to compete with upper echelon teams just yet, but it will take care of the teams it should and compete for dominance of the middle class.

NY Jets

There are a lot of expectations for the NY Jets this year with the arrival of Rodgers at QB. That’s assuming the QB position was the only position in need of an upgrade. It’s certainly the most important position, but given the chart above, there is more to the Jets struggles than the recent QB play.

Washington

Week 1 is a coin flip for this team, but the 4 weeks to follow are an absolute great opportunity to fade this team. With average losses of 6, 6, 11 and 17 this is a disaster stretch historically for Washington. The hole is dug too deep to get out before the half way point.

ATS Losers

NY Giants

The NY Giants not only failed to win early, they failed to cover spreads early. Not much to say beyond what was already said in game results commentary above. But I will add that the spread is the great equalizer, and winning with expectations is hard, covering spreads with high market expectations is almost impossible. Don’t overvalue an asset.

Washington

While you got a good chance of backing this team and cashing a ticket in week 1, you can fade them like no tomorrow in that week 2-5 stretch mentioned earlier. With Rivera still at the helm there, I wouldn’t expect much different results this year