2025 Week 4 NFL Contest Picks
Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool
Another week in the NFL and another lesson in getting the best number. The 3 contests had different lines on 4 of the 5 games I selected in week 3. Fortunately, unlike week 1, a game didn’t get wins and losses. With the Chargers game winning field goal, I got a win at Circa and DraftKings but a push in the SuperContest. If placing cash bets, I’d be glad to get my money back on the push, but it would suck knowing I could have taken a better number and got the win.
Besides the nail biting outcomes in 3 of my 5 selections, it was a weird day because I made a mistake on my DraftKings ticket. Each Thursday I enter picks for each contest, just in case something happens I don’t have empty cards. I then make my final selections on Friday, and lock in my picks for the weekend. However, I missed the update to the DraftKings entry on Friday, and Detroit is on the ticket instead of Dallas. The record below reflects the entry performance with Detroit getting the win and the cover on MNF. So far, the DraftKings entry is having more success than the 2 Las Vegas contests.
New Mexico
The NFL is crazy, and week 3 was a reminder that anything can happen in a game. It was also a reminder that any team is capable of beating any other team on any given Sunday. This was extremely relevant in 2 of the 3 picks I had for the early Sunday games of Colts, Packers and Eagles. Indianapolis was cruising, and turned out to never be in doubt. At halftime, I turned off the Eagles game because they were playing so poorly, and missed the come back in the 2nd half. At halftime of these 3 games I felt like 2-1 was a good shot, but I thought it would be the Packers covering and not the Eagles. I’m extremely grateful the blocked kick was returned for a touchdown, else I would not have had a winning week.
The afternoon games were similar, one of the plays went down to the wire, while the other was pretty much settled early. Dallas looked like the team I expected in the preseason, and nothing like the offense from the first 2 weeks of the season. The injury to WR Lamb didn’t help things, and the Bears got the dub.
The Chargers was a different story. They were leading 10-0 before Denver was able to get a quick touchdown before the end of the 1st half. The Broncos received the ball in the 2nd half and scored a touchdown to take a 4 point lead, and effectively winning the middle 8. The Chargers fumbled the following kickoff return, and the Broncos extend the lead to 7 with a field goal. Herculean effort by the Chargers defense to hold them to a field goal in that situation. Still trailing by 7 with 5 minutes left in the game, the Charger put together a 76 yard drive for a touchdown and the tie. After the defense forces a 3 and out, the offense drives down the field once again, and kicks a game winning field goal as time expired.
I should have gone 1-4 in week 3. However, due to extreme luck, I was able to scratch out a 3-2 week. Unfortunately, the Chargers were a push in the SuperContest, so I only went 2-2-1 on that car. Here is a look at the contest performance through week 3:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | DraftKings | SuperContest |
| Last Week: | 3-2 | 4-1 | 2-2-1 |
| Overall: | 10-5 | 12-3 | 9-5-1 |
New Mexico – week 4 picks
In weeks 1 and 2 I spoke about contest plays that I didn’t like or didn’t understand why the system liked certain teams. In these situations my gut was telling me the other side was the right side. Fortunately for me, I listened to the system and not my gut, and I have gotten off to a good start. I hope that continues in week 4, as the system flagged a bunch of sides that I find questionable, or dare I say “square plays”.
Seattle is the first play on the ticket, which required full ticket submission on Thursday. I normally avoid TNF games, but I needed a 5th pick and Seattle was it. The Seahawks won and covered, so I’m already off to a 1-0 start for the week, but I hated this pick. In the preseason magazine I cover in more detail but I’m not a fan of QB Darnold, and thought he would hurt not help this team. Early results show I was wrong, which is fine, I’ve been wrong before, but it’s still early and we’ll see how he finishes. In the preseason magazine I was also a fan of Arizona’s, so this pick goes counter to my preseason beliefs. I hated that and really despised this play. Happy it won though.
Once again the Eagles have New Mexico’s attention. It has Philadelphia ranked as a top 5 offense and a top 10 defense. It only has Tampa Bay’s offense rated as average and the defense as above average. This indicates the line should be a little larger, and their is value on the Eagles. However, I hate going back to the Philadelphia well for a 3rd straight week, especially after the performance last week. If the Eagles passing attack can take flight once again, then I’ll feel more comfortable with this play, but I’m not sure that happens and I hate laying 3 and the hook on the road.
The New Mexico model has a scale that doesn’t make many games have a line larger than 10 points. So anytime a team is getting so many points it will automatically flag it as a play. That is the case this week with New Orleans. I hate this situation for the Saints. They just traveled cross-country to Seattle, got embarrassed and not must fly up the east coast to Buffalo. I had higher expectation for the Saints than most this season, and thought they could put together a power rushing attack. However, o-line injuries might be impacting the performance, or I’m a year early on the Saints. Either way, who wants to take the points with a team that just lost by 31 points on the road against a team with extra rest from TNF mini bye. I love double digit dogs, but hate this situation.
I was big on the Colts in my preseason magazine, and have tickets on them to win the division, so am happy with the quick start to the season by the team. However, this doesn’t feel like a good spot to me. Flying across the country to take on a top 10 team will always be a challenge. I also expect the Rams to come out with their hair on fire after losing the way they did last week. It’s a nice reminder that you need to finish drives in the end zone, and not rely on making field goals. The Rams didn’t finish enough drives in the end zone and it cost them against Philly. Will they make the same mistake 2 weeks in a row? Signs point to no. Love the Colts this year, hate this spot.
In the preseason I was high on Baltimore and low on Kansas City, so I’m not surprised the Ravens are favored in this game. However, I’m quite shocked both teams are 1-2. I think both teams are desperate for a win, and Baltimore has not show the ability to put teams away this year. So why would I want to lay the points with Baltimore? I should stay away from this game completely. The Chiefs should be able to get the offense going this week as the Ravens defense has not performed up to standards this year. New Mexico has the Ravens defense rated 28th, but it als ohas the offense rated 5th. Since it’s the regular season, New Mexico has a strong preference for offensive, and the Ravens offensive performance gives them an overall top 10 ranking. The Chiefs offense is rated as average, and that is all New Mexico cares about. It doesn’t know that WR Worthy is playing and will help stretch the field for the Chiefs, so it’s going to flag the top 5 offense with a short line. I understand why it made the selection, I just hate the play, I’d rather stay away from this game.
Here are the week 4 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Circa line | DraftKings line | SuperContest line |
| Seattle | -1.5 | +1.5 | -1 |
| Philadelphia | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
| New Orleans | +15.5 | +16.5 | +15.5 |
| Indianapolis | +3.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 |
| Baltimore | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
Original Model
The original model went 3-2 again in week 3. That brings its overall record to 10-5 on the season. The hook in the San Francisco game cost the original model a point as the 49ers won by 1 on a last second field goal. It’s a good thing they signed K Piñeiro and moved on from Moody.
The Indianapolis selection was the 2nd time the two models agreed on a pick this season. Teams are 2-0 ATS when both models are in agreement. The original model took the lead in head-to-head matchups as it selected Cleveland while New Mexico took Green Bay. Hopefully that success continues in week 4, as there are 2 games that both systems agree on this week.
Here are the week 4 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Pittsburgh | +2.5 |
| New Orleans | +16.5 |
| New England | -5.5 |
| Baltimore | -2.5 |
| Dallas | +6.5 |
