2025 Week 3 NFL Contest Picks
Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool
Only 2 weeks into the 2025 season, and we’ve been treated to some exciting football finishes. Week 1 gave us the Bills come from behind win in the 4th quarter against Baltimore. Week 2 gave us the thrilling close between the Giants and Cowboys. The teams combined to score 24 points in the final 3 minutes of the game. Overtime was a bit boring in comparison, but who expected that offensive explosion from the Giants? Week 2 was also good for my contest selections, going 4-1 in all 3 contests.
New Mexico
The Rams struggled in the 1st half against the Titans, but the Steelers were winning 14-7 at halftime. At that point I knew I was going to start the week 1-1, but I didn’t expect the teams to flip in the 2nd half. The Rams took care of business in the 2nd half, outscoring the Titans 23 to 6 and winning the game 33-19. It was an easy cover, and I relaxed once the lead was extended to 14 and the back door cover was taken off the table. The Steelers on the other hand couldn’t catch a break in the 2nd half. The miscues on special teams and an underperforming defense are not characteristics of the Steelers past.
The afternoon game that the NFL wanted everyone to watch, the Super Bowl rematch, did not disappoint. The game was tied at halftime, but the Eagles were able to grab a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. The Chiefs were able to get a late touchdown, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the tush push. The Eagles got the win and the cover, leaving me 2-1 heading into MNF.
I really enjoyed the 2 games on MNF, especially with the first starting at 7 and the 2nd game coming immediately after. I didn’t like it when they ran both games at the same time with a slightly staggard start. Tampa Bay held the lead most of the game, but a late touchdown gave the Texans the lead and the cover. Facing 4th and 10, QB Mayfield scrambled up the middle for 15 yards and gave the Bucs life. Six plays later, Tampa Bay scored the game winning touchdown, and I headed into the last game of the week 3-1. The second MNF game wasn’t as exciting as the first. The Chargers were in control of the game from the beginning and cruised to a 20-9 victory, giving me an amazing 4-1 performance in week 2.
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | DraftKings | SuperContest |
| Last Week: | 4-1 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Overall: | 7-3 | 8-2 | 7-3 |
New Mexico – week 3 picks
The Colts offense is benefiting from offseason additions QB Jones and TE Warren. Meanwhile Tennessee’s offense has yet to find a groove with rookie QB Ward leading the way. He did throw his first NFL TD last week, but it was a terrible across the field throw that usually gets intercepted. New Mexico has Tennessee rated as a bad team and Indianapolis is above average and climbing. Also, Tennessee will be without OT Latham again this week, so might continue to struggle with protection and opening running lanes. I’ll take the Colts.
The Packers are off to a hot start, and making a strong case for my NFC North division bet. They are winning on both sides of the ball with the defense performing as well as the offense. New Mexico has Green Bay rated as a good team at 6th overall. It also has Cleveland rated as the worst team in the league. I wish the line was under a touchdown, but Green Bay should win by 10 or more.
The New Mexico model really likes this Eagles team and considers them great. It also really likes the Rams defense, but considers the offense only average. The Rams should have stayed on the east coast after playing in Tennessee last week. That would help with preparation and limit travel time, while also giving the team another chance to bond without family distractions. However, I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the Eagles this week, and Philadelphia continues to roll.
The Chargers finally get a home game after playing in Brazil and Las Vegas in weeks 1 and 2. The Broncos get to travel to LA after playing in Indianapolis in week 2. I wonder which team will have the larger crowd. Either way, it should be a defensive slugfest as New Mexico has both of these teams defenses rated in the top 5. However, it give the Chargers a large edge on offense. In a battle between the 2 teams I bet to win the AFC West, I’ll side with the better offense in this game.
In my preseason magazine I was not a fan of Dallas and I bet them to go UNDER the win total of 7.5. I was able to get plus money on the bet, so I new I was in the minority, but I just didn’t like the way the team was shaping up nor the new head coach. However, this offense has looked fantastic through the first couple of weeks. Meanwhile, the Bears are still doing Bears like things despite having Ben Johnson as the head coach. The opening offensive drives Chicago has orchestrated in weeks 1 and 2 have been amazing. The other offensive drives have not. All attention is being paid to the Bears offense while sporting the 3rd worst defense in the league. Better offense wins again.
Here are the week 3 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Circa line | DraftKings line | SuperContest line |
| Indianapolis | -4 | -3.5 | -4 |
| Green Bay | -7.5 | -8.5 | -7.5 |
| Dallas | -1 | +1.5 | -1 |
| Philadelphia | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
| LA Chargers | -2.5 | -2.5 | -3 |
Original Model
The original model went 3-2 in week 2. That brings its overall record to 7-3 on the season. Hopefully it goes back to the 4-1 performance in week 3.
Here are the week 3 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| New Orleans | +7.5 |
| Cleveland | +8.5 |
| Indianapolis | -3.5 |
| San Francisco | -1.5 |
| Detroit | +5.5 |
