2025 Week 2 NFL Contest Picks
Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool
Getting the best line and/or price makes it a lot easier to make money sports betting. Once you’ve identified the game(s) you want to wager on, it’s best to check the different sportsbook apps to see what the lines are, or you can use a site like VSiN that aggregates the data for you. A great example of why this is important is in my contest results from last week. Denver was -8.5 in the Circa and SuperContest but it was only -7.5 at DraftKings. With Denver winning by 8 points I win at DraftKings but lose the other 2 contests.
We turn the page to week 2, or at least Washington and Green Bay did last night on Thursday Night Football. The Packers made another statement victory against Washington last night, and are making me feel good about my division win bet I placed in June. The week 2 picks have a similar feel to week 1, I don’t like most of them. Hopefully that means another winning week.
New Mexico
As previously mentioned, Denver was a winner in the DraftKings contest but not Circa or Westgate. That means a 4-1 record at DraftKings, but just a 3-2 record in the other 2 contests. The Bengals squeaked out a week 1 win against division rival Cleveland, but failed to cover the spread. It wasn’t for lack of chances, but the offensive line is still terrible. The defense performed well, but still allowed the Browns to move the ball successfully and keep the game close.
Making field goals and extra points is so important to ensuring your team covers the spread that I fully expected Tampa Bay to lose to Atlanta. The Buccaneers kicker missed a field goal and an extra point in the 4th quarter, both of which would have forced Atlanta to get a TD instead of trying the game tying field goal for OT. Atlanta got in field goal range, but thankfully Koo pushed the attempt right and I got win number 1.
San Francisco tried it’s best to give the game to Seattle, but Darnold fumbled when it mattered most and the 49ers were able to put the game away. This was another game with kicking issues as the 49ers missed 1 field goal and had another blocked. Not surprisingly, K Moody was cut from the team on Monday. I went into MNF needing a win to ensure starting off above .500 in week 1. I was worried when the Bears took opening drive down for 7, and even more worried when the interception was returned for a TD to extend the lead. Fortunately for me, the Bears remembered who they were, the offense disappeared, and they let another big game slip away. Still the same ole Bears.
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | DraftKings | SuperContest |
| Last Week: | 3-2 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Overall: | 3-2 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
New Mexico – week 2 picks
The Rams QB Stafford looked healthy in week 1, and as long as he is healthy the Rams can beat any team in the NFL. The Titans showed some tenacity at Denver in week 1, but they still have a long way to go for improvement. I’ll take the opportunity to back a healthy Stafford and fade the Titans while I still can, but this is a hard pick to make. The Rams are flying 3/4 of the way across the country and are playing at what would be 9 a.m. their time. They also have defending champion Philadelphia on deck, and I know they are professionals, but what if they get caught looking ahead to next week a little bit?
I’m not a fan of the Steelers this year, and am very surprised the offense was so explosive last week. However, I’m also not a fan of QB Darnold and am looking to fade him early and often. So it pains me to take the Steelers and lay the points at home.
The one game Kansas City has had circled was this week 2 matchup against Philadelphia. They want revenge, and want to show the world that the Super Bowl result was a fluke. Oh and Kansas City is also the underdog, it’s only a point but how disrespectful is that to Reid and Mahomes? I hate that the systems has flagged the Eagles. I understand why it likes Philly this week, and I expected regression from Kansas City this season, but the revenge angle gives me pause.
The New Mexico system only flagged 4 games that it liked, so I had to add the next closest selection, which was Tampa Bay. That right there is enough to make me not like the pick, I’m forced to make it. If I was just playing cash bets, I’d only bet the 4 games, but the contests require 5 picks. Also, Houston is probably in a bit of panic mode as they lost on the road to the Rams last week and do NOT want to start the season 0-2.
The system clearly didn’t get enough divisional road favorite action in week 1 because it’s back to it again in week 2. The Chargers follow up the week 1 win over Kansas City in Brazil with a trip to Las Vegas. Both teams are coming off long distance travel, however, the Chargers have 2 extra days of rest. I wonder if they will be as explosive offensively this week, or will the Raiders defense slow them down. I love the Chargers this season, I just hate this situation.
Here are the week 2 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Circa line | DraftKings line | SuperContest line |
| LA Rams | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| Tampa Bay | +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 |
| Pittsburgh | -3 | -2.5 | -3 |
| Philadelphia | -1 | -1.5 | -1 |
| LA Chargers | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
Original Model
The original model got off to a great start with a 4-1 record in week 1. The Jaguars benefited from a weather delay as the Panthers offense never looked right after the extended break. I spoke about San Francisco above. Detroit was a no show against Green Bay, and that was the only L. The Rams defense was disruptive and the Texans rushing attack never materialized. Baltimore lost in a heart breaker on SNF, but thankfully the contest had the Ravens +1.5, so I still got the W there.
Here are the week 2 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Miami | -1.5 |
| Buffalo | -6.5 |
| Indianapolis | +2.5 |
| Atlanta | +5.5 |
| Jacksonville | +3.5 |
