2025 Week 12 NFL Contest Picks
Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool
I traditionally spend my Sundays sitting in my office with 3 or 4 games on, depending on when all my picks are playing. Last week was different, I was in Philadelphia for the game, and found myself bouncing between bars for the 1 pm games. If it wasn’t for all the beer, I probably would’ve been frustrated at my lack of knowing what was happening in the games I wanted to watch. Also, I figured out I don’t like the Red Zone channel. The constant flipping between plays, it’s silly. Just get the Sunday ticket and watch the games you want to watch in multiview.
Last weeks selections were a mixed bag, and resulted in a 2-3 performance for the week. Sunday started out strong with the Bears and Steelers looking good, but the Chargers shitting the bed. It was enough for a solid 2-1 start to the day. Then it came time for the Rams game, which I’m still being tormented by. The Rams felt like they controlled that game from every aspect except the scoreboard. The Seahawks were turning the ball over, and settling for field goals, while Los Angeles was finishing drives in the end zone. It didn’t help that the Rams didn’t score in the 2nd or 3rd quarters, but when they got that TD int he 4th to go up 9 I was hopeful once again. Unfortunately the Rams defense wasn’t as stout on the last drive and the Seahawks got the back door cover, 2-2.
It all came down to the Sunday night football game between Detroit and Philadelphia. It was cold in Philly on Sunday night, with wind gusts up to 40 mph. Cold enough that I retreated to the Hyundai club (thanks Shawn and Erin) in the 2nd quarter, and left halfway through the 3rd quarter. Besides the cold, the most uncomfortable feeling was cheering for the Lions while surrounded by 60,000+ Eagles fans that had been drinking all day. These are the same people that threw snowballs at Santa Clause, unruly. So the Lions couldn’t get the offense going, and I got to bed early with a losing week. Wonderful.
Here is a look at the contest performance through week 11:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | DraftKings | SuperContest |
| Last Week: | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Overall: | 29-26 | 31-24 | 28-26-1 |
Week 12 picks
New Mexico model
After backing both the Bears and the Steelers last week, these 2 teams face off in week 12. Both teams enter with above average offenses. However, most of the success of these offenses have come against mediocre defenses, and that’s where things are different between these teams. The Bears have an average defense, but if they don’t force turnovers they struggle, rarely getting sacks and allowing teams to finish in the end zone when reaching the red zone. The Steelers have an above average defense that specializes in the bend don’t break, giving up a lot of short completions and runs, but keeping teams out of the end zone and forcing a high yards per point (YPP) stat. Finally, the Bears do sport a 7-3 record, but their 7 wins came against teams with a combined record of 20-51-1 and 2 of 3 losses are to potential playoff teams. The Steelers are in the latter category. I’ll take the better team and the points.
I have Kansas City and Indianapolis rated right next to each other inside the top-5 teams in the league. Most of this is due to the success of the offenses. However, unlike the Bears and Steelers, the defenses are also rated the same, above average. The only difference is the Colts made a major upgrade a few weeks back to their defense, while the Chiefs did not. In my preseason magazine I was bullish on the Colts, betting them OVER their win total and to win the AFC South. I was also bearish on the Chiefs, betting them UNDER their win total and not expecting them to win the AFC West. So far that analysis from June is holding firm, so I’m sticking with it for this matchup too. I’ll take the Colts and the points.
The Jaguars continue to be an enigma, never certain which version we will get on any given Sunday. After rocking the Chargers at home last week, Jacksonville travels cross country to play Arizona. The Cardinals offense was looking improved and consistent with QB Brissett leading the way while QB Murray has been out injured. However, the last 2 weeks the offense has not looked as good, and they are dealing with a high number of injuries to both skill positions and more importantly the o-line. In the preseason I was bullish on both of these teams and made bets on both to win their respective divisions. The season hasn’t played out like I expected for Arizona, can’t get them all right, but has played out close to expectations for the Jaguars so far. Jacksonville still has a chance to win the AFC South or at least make the playoffs. A win this week will help both those causes.
What’s the cure for a stagnant offense? A game against the Cowboys defense! The last time we saw the Cowboys in a matchup with a strong defense and a struggling offense they got smoked by Denver. It’s also the time of season that you start to put more emphasis on defensive performance than offense. So why am I on the Cowboys this week? Honestly, I’m not sure, but the model likes Dallas to keep it close at home. This is just one of those games where you hold your nose and hope for the best, but this is the one pick on the card that is making my stomach turn.
Speaking of holding your nose and hoping for the best, enter Tampa Bay. After travelling to Buffalo and allowing 44 points, the Buccaneers now get to travel cross country to take on the Rams. The far travel on the 2nd leg of back-to-back road games this late in the season definitely isn’t going to help Tampa Bay. However, reports out of Tampa have been positive all week despite the beating in Buffalo. Also, I wasn’t a fan of Rams entering the season. I said it would all come down to keeping Stafford healthy. So far they have done that, but injuries are starting to make their mark in LA, especially to the o-line, while Tampa Bay is finally getting healthy. The Rams are a good team, while Tampa is average. The difference between the 2 isn’t a touchdown, it’s closer to a field goal. I’ll take the extra points.
Here are the week 12 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Circa line | DraftKings line | SuperContest line |
| Pittsburgh | +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 |
| Indianapolis | +3.5 | +3.5 | +3 |
| Jacksonville | -3 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| Dallas | +3.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 |
| Tampa Bay | +7 | +6.5 | +6.5 |
Original Model
The original model had another good performance in week 11, going 3-2 for the 2nd week in a row. That brings its overall record to 29-26 on the season.
The aligned system picks of Bears and Rams went 1-1 last week, bringing the season performance to 4-7 ATS this season. The systems are aligned on 2 plays this week, Jaguars and Cowboys. Lets see if aligned plays can improve over last weeks 1-1 performance.
In head-to-head matchups the original model won with its selection of Philadelphia versus New Mexico’s selection of Detroit. That brings the original models record to 4-1 in head-to-head matchups this season. There is 1 head-to-head matchup this week, with the original model on the Rams and New Mexico on the Buccaneers.
Here are the week 12 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Minnesota | +6.5 |
| Jacksonville | -2.5 |
| Dallas | +3.5 |
| LA Rams | -6.5 |
| San Francisco | -6.5 |
