2025 Week 13 NFL Contest Picks

Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate

SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! I hope today is filled with turkey, pie and football. Add some beers and that’s how I plan on spending my day. Does it get better than 3 NFL games on a Thursday? Yes, by having a 4th played on Friday. I love the new scheduling the NFL started last year with the Black Friday game, it’s a fantastic way to fill the void.

Last weeks results are a great example of why it’s important to use multiple sportsbooks and get the best line possible. The Steelers at +2.5 just fell short in every contest play, losing by 3, but I cashed the non-contest ticket on them at +3.5 and got my money back on +3. The Colts were beating Kansas City the entire game, but allowed the Chiefs to get a game tying field goal to force overtime. In OT, the Chiefs were able to kick the game winning field goal. The contest and cash tickets of Colts +3.5 were winners, but the +3 at SuperContest became a push. Finally, the Jaguars couldn’t put the Cardinals away, and were also forced to go to overtime. Luckily for me the Jaguars held on for the 3 point win. Unfortunately for me, I had the Jags -3 at Circa and that was a push instead of a loss. There is nothing I can do about the contest lines, but my cash bets I’m able to get the better line and keep my money. It’s good to shop around.

Dallas opened flat against Philadelphia, and due to bad decisions and unforced errors, the Cowboys found themselves in a 21-0 hole at halftime. I was already counting this as a loss, but the Cowboys fought back in the 2nd half, and won the game. It was a great unexpected win, and one that I needed after having 3 other games decided by half a point. With the Cowboys win, I was guaranteed at least a .500 week in Circa and SuperContest, and a winning week in DraftKings. Sadly Tampa Bay shit the bed on Sunday Night Football, and I was unable to have the great winning week I’ve been seeking since the first quarter of the season.

Here is a look at the contest performance through week 12:

Contest Results	Circa Millions	DraftKings	SuperContest
Last Week:	2-2-1	3-2	2-2-1
Overall:	31-28-1	34-26	30-28-2

Week 13 picks

New Mexico model

In my preseason magazine I made bets on both Green Bay and Detroit to win the NFC North, and now they are battling it out on Thanksgiving day with the winner keeping pace with the Chicago Bears. I have the Lions rated as the 3rd best team in the league, and the Packers are just inside the top-10. The Packers offense hasn’t been the same since TE Kraft has gone down with injury. The Lions defense has struggled at times, but manages to make the big play when it happens. The Packers have better success against non-playoff teams, and struggle against teams destined for the 2nd season. The Lions are a playoff team, and they shouldn’t have any trouble with the Packers this week.

The Colts weren’t able to steal the win in Kansas City last week, and now must face one of the best defenses in the league against Houston. Indianapolis took care of the weaker teams early in the season, but have been challenged against the tougher schedule the past few weeks. However, in my preseason magazine I was high on Indy and low on Houston. The Colts need to win this game to help my case, and I fully expect them to bounce back this week against a much weaker offense that is only 1 dimensional.

The Falcons looked pretty good against the Saints last week, but every team has looked good against the Saints this season so that is nothing to write home about. This week the Falcons must face the Jets defense that has continued to perform well despite trading away 2 of their best players on that side of the ball. I have WR Mooney in my fantasy lineup, and hope he continues to get chances to make big plays for the Falcons with WR London out injured. However, the cold and wind might limit those chances, so I’ll take the Jets and their defense to keep this game close.

The Steelers weren’t able to pull off the win last week in Chicago, and now must play Buffalo. The Bills have been soul searching since before their bye week, but the defense is just not playing at a championship level. The Steelers balanced offensive attack should have a lot of big plays this week. Also, the Steelers defense continues to improve week after week, and with most of the Bills receiving options out injured the Steelers should be able to shut down a 1 dimensional Bills offense.

In my preseason magazine I was a big fan of the Broncos this season, and I have bets on them to win the AFC West, the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl. I really want/need them to win this game with Kansas City showing signs of life. However, I’m backing the Commanders in this game, and expect them to keep it close. I’m not sure why my model made this selection, the Broncos defense is top-2 in the league and the Commanders offense has struggled with consistency and injuries this season. It’s another one of those hold your nose and hope for the best plays.

Here are the week 13 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:

Team	Circa line	DraftKings line	SuperContest line
Detroit	-2.5	-2.5	-3
Indianapolis	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5
NY Jets	+2.5	+2.5	+2.5
Pittsburgh	+3	+3.5	+3
Washington	+5.5	+6.5	+5.5

Original Model

The original model had another good performance in week 12, going 4-1. That brings its overall record to 33-27 on the season.

The aligned system picks of Jaguars and Cowboys went 2-0 last week, as long as you had Jaguars -2.5 and not -3. That brings the aligned season performance to 6-7 ATS on the season.

The original model continued its domination of the New Mexico model in head-to-head matchups. The Rams absolutely smoked the Buccaneers on SNF, and the original model has moved to a 5-1 record in the head-to-head matchups this season.

The original model was still working through simulations as of this writing, but early results show that it wasn’t a fan of any of the Thanksgiving or the Black Friday games. I will post the original models picks in a separate post when the simulations finish.