NFL 2026 Week 3 Survivor Picks
In week 2, I continued the strategy of targeting teams that were 7-point favorites or more. The options were plentiful with Philadelphia, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, San Francisco and LA Rams all being favored by 7 points or more. I stayed away from the Rams due to the week 1 performance of both teams, but QB Dart was hurt on the opening drive, and the Giants never stood a chance. The good news, WR Adams blew up for me in fantasy and allowed me to win my week 2 matchup. Thanks Davante!
The 49ers took care of business, without a doubt of victory over Miami. Despite an opening drive interception in the end zone, the Eagles were seemingly in control of the game with the Titans in the 1st half. Then the 2nd half came and the staleness of offense from the Eagles returned, and they needed a come from behind victory to win the game. Baltimore missed WR Flowers, his ability to stretch the field and open running lanes from RB Henry is undeniable. Finally, Tampa Bay blew a home game to the Browns. To the Browns! At home! Looks like the “fade the Browns” strategy isn’t as good an idea as originally thought.
All in all I lost 3 of 6 entries in one contest and 1 of 3 entries in the 2nd. I’m not alone, most pools have roughly 1/3 of original entries remaining. This same scenario plays out every year, that’s why it’s important to have multiple entries and spread the picks across multiple teams.
Week 3 Survivor Strategy: Targeting 7-Point Favorites or More
Sticking with the same approach this week, and once again there are plenty of options to work with.
| Matchup | Line |
|---|---|
| Buffalo vs LA Chargers | -7 |
| Kansas City at Miami | -10.5 |
| Seattle at Washington | -7.5 |
| San Francisco vs Arizona | -8.5 |
Don’t be worried about backing a road team in Kansas City. As outlined in the survivor strategy, game location has little bearing on expected outcome. The spread is the better indicator. Think of it this way: if the game were played on a neutral field, or in Kansas City, the line would only be larger.
Last week I skipped the Rams, and this week I’m skipping Seattle. With 4 teams meeting criteria, but only 3 entries, one team needs to get dropped. I expect this to be a low scoring game, and those are ripe for upsets. I’ll probably be wrong.
This Week’s Picks
My selections this week: Buffalo, Kansas City and San Francisco.
- Contest 1 (3 of 10 entries remaining): I’m going with a single entry for each team. I had the 49ers on 2 of the surviving entries from last week, so playing them on the 3rd option.
- Contest 2 (2 of 5 entries remaining): Going with San Francisco, and Kansas City. Using San Francisco on the opposite entry from last week.
Good luck to everyone still alive — let’s keep it rolling into Week 4!
