NFL Teams that Finish Strong

Using weekly Year over Year Performance

The last few weeks I wrote about teams that start strong and those that start slow. But as we all know, it’s not necessarily how you start, but how you finish that matters the most. With that in mind, I’ll spend the next couple weeks looking at teams that finish strong, and those that fade down the stretch.

I used the same 2 dashboards as the previous few weeks. The dashboard shows the YoY team performance for the 2017-2022 seasons by week. I looked at it for both game and spread results, but put each on there own page. The Year over Year performance dashboard is available on my tableau public page, but you need to sign in for it to work correctly. I created this dashboard using the seasonality charts that are typical in corporate America, but replaced months with the NFL weeks.

Based on my findings, these are the teams that finish strong down the stretch.

Game Winners

Here are the list of teams that excel at winning games late in the season.

Baltimore

The chart for Baltimore starts in week 9, and it’s a very positive chart. They have a positive average scoring margin until you get to week 18. It seems Baltimore has not responded well to the extra week that was added a few weeks back. Also, focusing on the last few years, it seems seems the mediocrity starts in week 10. I know they’ve had QB injuries to end the season the last few years, but that does not indicate positive momentum to me. I’d be careful backing Baltimore at the end of the season.

Buffalo

The final 7 weeks of the season for Buffalo are very positive. Good time to build momentum, especially if you can carry it over to the post season. Other than a small blip in week 16 for years 2017-2019, this is a mostly positive chart. The Bills should be a team to keep an eye on and invest in to end the season.

Dallas

The chart for Dallas is very interesting. The early years of the chart are under former head coach Jason Garrett, and those aren’t very good results. No wonder why that guy couldn’t win in the playoffs, and they blamed it all on Tony Romo. Garrett’s replacement, Mike McCarthy, is having a much better time at finishing the season. This could be a team that makes the NFC East division interesting with another strong finish like demonstrated in the chart.

Green Bay

Green Bay is on the slow start list, but that must just be extended training camp or something because this team finishes strong. I wonder what the impact of new QB will have on this trend continuing. Any injuries to the o-line will make continuing this trend difficult. I’m not sure how this will go, but if it doesn’t go well, this team could have a new head coach and a new QB next year.

Kansas City

Kansas City not only gets off to strong starts, but they also finish strong too. The Chiefs are 35-10 over the final 9 weeks of the season for 2017-2022. It doesn’t get much better than that, especially when preparing for the playoffs. No wonder they go deep into the playoffs each year, the Chiefs are running on all cylinders down the stretch.

New Orleans

If you look YoY performance for the 2nd half of the season for the New Orleans Saints you can see why they are always in playoff talks at the end of the season. They have a positive average score variance for each week with only 19 losses. The Saints should be a team to watch the 2nd half of the season again this year.

San Francisco

Not surprising to see this team here with the defenses they’ve deployed over the years, but San Francisco is the last team of the Game Winners section. The chart above is for weeks 10-18, and only has 1 negative average week, which is week 13. Seems they run into a buzzsaw each year that week. Other than that, the 49ers are a team able to play themselves into the playoff picture in the 2nd half of the season.

ATS Winners

Winning the game is great, but winning money is even better. Here are the teams that do a good job of covering the spread the 2nd half of the season.

Buffalo

We already covered Buffalo winning games down the stretch, but more importantly, they cover the spread. Starting in week 12, you can put your money behind Buffalo, and probably have an advantage. Look to back Buffalo the final 7 weeks of the season.

Cincinnati

The Bengals chart isn’t the sexiest chart in the world. The results are definitely not as good as Buffalo or San Francisco, but the week 15-17 stretch is nothing to sneeze at. Burrow will get my attention, and probably a few dollars behind him to end the season this year.

San Francisco

Like Buffalo, San Francisco is a team that not only wins games down the stretch, they also cover the spread. Again, the exception is week 13, but other than that you’ll have a better than 50/50 chance of the 49ers covering down the stretch. I like when the odds are tipped in my favor like this, and will definitely be looking to back San Francisco late this year.