NFL Teams that Finish Weakly
Using weekly Year over Year Performance
I’ve spent the past few weeks looking at teams year over year performance by week, and identified those that Start Strong, Start Slow and Finish Strong. In the final installment of reviewing teams YoY performance, I review the teams that finish poorly down the stretch.
I used the same 2 dashboards as the previous few weeks. The dashboard shows the YoY team performance for the 2017-2022 seasons by week. I looked at it for both game and spread results, but put each on there own page. The Year over Year performance dashboard is available on my tableau public page, but you need to sign in for it to work correctly. I created this dashboard using the seasonality charts that are typical in corporate America, but replaced months with the NFL weeks.
Based on my findings, these are the teams that struggle at the end of the season.
Game Losers
Here are the list of teams that can’t win a game at the end of the season.
Arizona
The last 9 weeks of the season have not been good to the Arizona Cardinals. The extra week added 2 years ago has not been kind to the Cardinals either. Based on the chart, it looks like the teams season ended in week 17 and they didn’t even try in week 18. There are a lot of people you can point the finger at on this, and with the house cleaning that happened this winter, they all took the fall. I believe the issue was depth, particularly on the o-line, and that falls at the feet of the GM. It’s his job to make sure the roster can sustain the natural churn of injuries that occur throughout the season, and not drafting well amplifies the issue. I wouldn’t expect much difference this season either. It will take years to right this ship, so look to fade Arizona down the stretch.
Carolina
It’s safe to say that neither Matt Rhule nor Ron Rivera were good at finishing the season. Perhaps they have depth issues too. Despite the investments made in the trenches in the past, injuries can’t be avoided, cough Run CMC cough, especially to the stars. I point the finger at Rhule and Rivera however, because interim coach Steve Wilks posts the best returns on the chart. Look at the final dot for each week, it’s close to the best result for that week for the past 6 years, and he had the same players/depth as Rhule for certain. Frank Reich should help them finish the season better as the Colts chart for 2nd half of season is much improved over Carolina’s.
Denver
We’ll find out real soon if coaching or player depth has been the issue in Denver the last few years. I know all the focus has been on them finding a QB, and the amount of capital they invested in the acquisition of Russell Wilson will hamper their ability to improve depth. This season will be telling on what to expect for the future with this team, and they invested heavily in the o-line in free agency so an improvement should be expected.
jacksonville
Talk about the difference a coach can make. I was hesitant to include Jacksonville on this list, but thought the prior 5 years deserved a mention. Don’t expect the coach to be the reason for failure down the stretch, as Pederson learned from Andy Reid, and knows how to finish a season strong. As long as the team can stay healthy, and they can continue to build depth to help the stars of the team, the Jaguars should be okay.
Las vegas
Poor scouting, bad drafting, and zero development have lead to major issues with the Raiders. This is what happens when the head coach has control of the roster and loves every guy he sees. Have you ever heard Gruden say a negative thing about anybody? It’s insane how much he loves all these players. No wonder this team is in disarray and can’t finish the season. I’m not sure it will be much better this year, we’ll see how the injuries play out, because this team has zero depth.
New york Giants
Despite all the good that Brian Daboll did for the NY Giants last year, this team still struggled to win games when it mattered most. This is a great example of a team that lacks depth, and a few key injuries will impact them. This should improve over time, and the team is already taking the steps to fix the salary cap issue that Gettleman left them with. Good fortune is just around the corner for this team, but at least 1 maybe 2 more years of purgatory will be required first.
washington
I’m not surprised that Washington made this list after seeing Carolina’s chart. The additional week 18 has been good for them, but weeks 13-17 has to be tied with the NY Giants for the worst 5 week stretch we see. A new OC won’t fix the issue, don’t expect a win from Washington at the end of the season.
ATS Losers
As a gambler, the most important thing is covering the spread and cashing tickets. These are the teams that struggle to cash tickets at the end of the year, and are prime candidates to fade as the season moves into the cold months.
carolina
Carolina can’t win and they can’t cover spreads. A lot of those dots are lighter in shading indicating they were underdogs, so they not just lost, but lost by a lot. Even if Reich improves this team, I’m staying away down the stretch.
Las vegas
Las Vegas is another team that struggles to win and cover spreads when it matters most. I’ll fade them again this year in the final 10-11 weeks of the season, as soon as injuries set in.
Minnesota
Minnesota makes an appearance on the ATS list. They win the games, they just don’t cover spreads. Most of those dots are darker in shading, indicating they are favorites quite often at the end of the season. While they might find a way to win the game, they will leave you holding a losing ticket if you bet them to cover the number. I expect something similar again this year, and will look to fade the Vikings over the final 8 weeks of the season.
