NFL Week 3 Best Bets
Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool
Man did I take a beating last weekend. My contest picks went 1-4, dropping me to 3-7 overall. I’m actually in the running for the booby price in the Circa contest. Winning that would be bittersweet, but it’s money in the pocket, so if it happens, good. I would say I’m making changes to the system, but I’m not, there was a ton of bad luck and unfortunate events in the games I picked. The sad thing is they all went against me.
In the early games, Carolina once again was blown out and I waived the white flag on them early. They benched QB Young in favor of Andy Dalton. It’s a bit of a shame because the trade for Young is what got them in this position in the first place. Carolina wasn’t just a QB away before they made the trade, and with depleted future assets, the Panthers had to give away Burns just to get a little bit of draft capital. I was wrong on Carolina, this team has too many holes and zero depth.
Minnesota was on the other side, taking it to the 49ers and controlling that game the entire way. The 97-yard touchdown by Jefferson certainly helped. The Giants and Titans were another matter though, and these games cost me a winning week. Tennessee came down to 2 drives by the Titans. The Titans were driving and in the red zone when Levis did the worst play of his entire career, he threw the ball backwards trying to extend the play and the Jets recovered. This took at least 3 points off the board. Fortunately, the Jets didn’t score. Unfortunately, on the next Titans drive, Levis throws an interception. This time the Jets got a touchdown on the ensuing drive and the game was over. Great example of why you need to protect the football.
The Giants are another story all together. The kicker got hurt chasing down a return man, and this forced the Giants to go for 2-point conversions, and not attempt field goals. Despite this, the Giants still lead at halftime and it wasn’t until under 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter that Washington took the lead 15-12. The good news was the offense responded and the Giants scored another touchdown to take the lead 18-15. But with the game tied 18-18, not having a kicker haunted the Giants. They turned it over on downs, and Washington went on to kick the game winning field goal. Washington had 7 true possessions in the game, and got a field goal on each one, unbelievable.
Here’s a look at the contest records after week 2, it’s not good:
| Contest Performance | Circa Millions | SuperContest | DraftKings |
| Last week | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Overall | 3-7 | 3-7 | 2-8 |
Heading into week 3, I want to urge some caution on what has been seen so far over 2 weeks. That is a very small sample size, and a lot can still happen to impact the outcome of games this week and in the future.
Before the season I was big on Houston and had question marks around Minnesota. I wasn’t sure how the Vikings would look with Darnold at QB, but he has been decent in the first couple of weeks, it helps when you have the best wide receiver in the league. The run game and ball control on offense has also been good, so I’m going with the Vikings as a home dog for the 2nd week in a row.
I also wasn’t big on Pittsburgh coming into the season, mostly because I’m not a fan of either QB they have, but the Arthur Smith offense is perfect for this team. The defense has been great, although I will say they haven’t faced a true test. Chargers QB Herbert is questionable to play, but the team did stay on the east coast this week to avoid back and forth cross country travel. Even with a healthy Herbert, this Chargers offense will be against toughest challenge this season, and I expect this to be a low scoring hard fought game, but won by the home team.
I had Tennessee last week, and I was big on them to surprise people this year in the preseason, so I’m going back to them again this week. If QB Levis avoids mistakes this could be a 27-30 point per game offense. Denver offense struggled last week against Pittsburgh, but I expect them to bounce back on TB this week with Tampa coming off that big upset win over Detroit last week.
Finally, I’m looking at the 0-2 Jaguars to have a big sense of urgency and keep the game against Buffalo close. Buffalo has looked good the first 2 games, and have 3 extra days rest coming off TNF against Miami. However, the Jags have been close in both games losing each by only 1-score. Look for Jacksonville to keep this one close too.
Here are the week 3 contest picks:
| Team | Circa Millions line | SuperContest line | DraftKings line |
| Pittsburgh | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| Minnesota | +2 | +2 | +2.5 |
| Tennessee | -2 | -1.5 | -2.5 |
| Denver | +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 |
| Jacksonville | +5.5 | +5.5 | +5.5 |
New Mexico
Last week the new system I’m working on identified 6 games with value and worth a play, but they only went 2-4. That brings New Mexico to a season record of 6-6.
Once again New Mexico agrees with the original system on 1 play, Minnesota. I’m not sure this is a good indicator as system agreement is just 1-3 so far this season. But it’s an extremely small sample size, so I’m not going to overreact just yet.
Here are the week 3 picks for New Mexico:
- Minnesota +1.5
- New Orleans -3
- Miami +4.5
- San Francisco -6.5
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
