NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool

With a 3-2 week 3 performance I doubled my season win totals in the Circa Millions and SuperContest. Unfortunately, that’s just a testament to how poor my results were in the first 2-weeks of the season.

Pittsburgh took care of business against the Chargers and an injured QB Herbert who shouldn’t have played in the game at all. It does seem like the Steelers QB job is Fields to lose now after the first 3 weeks of the season. Minnesota also took care of business against the Texans. The Vikings put constant pressure on QB Stroud, and the Texans offense continued to struggle to start the year.

Denver not only got the cover, but they pulled off the win at Tampa Bay. Besides winning an entry pick, a lot of people in my survivor pools had Tampa Bay to win, so this helped me in more than 1 way. Denver stayed in West Virginia this week with upcoming game at NY Jets. That was the smarter decision over making back-to-back cross country flights. Hopefully they don’t pull off 2 big upsets in a row because I have the Jets in survivor this week.

Tennessee and Jacksonville both were terrible picks. I’m real big on Tennessee with the offensive weapons, investment in o-line and one of the best o-line coaches in the game, but this QB Levis slams his dick in the door at least once a game and completely kills the Titans chances of winning. Meanwhile, the Jaguars gave a lot of guaranteed money to a QB that suddenly looks replacement level. I’m not sure what his happening in Jacksonville, but this is not what I expected from them this season.

Here’s a look at the contest records after week 3, a little better, but a lot of work still to be done:

Contest Performance	Circa Millions	SuperContest	DraftKings
Last week	3-2	3-2	3-2
Overall	6-9	6-9	5-10

Week 4 Picks

New Orleans was brough back to earth last week by Philadelphia, losing at home with minimal offensive success. The Eagles laid the blueprint on how to stop the Saints run game, and with a defensive minded head coach in Morris, I expect Atlanta to have similar success. I was big on Atlanta in the preseason, and after a rough week 1, they have looked much better the last 2 weeks. Look for that success to continue in week 4.

I’ve been a backer of the Vikings the last 2 weeks, but this week I’m going the other way. Green Bay has played superb football in the opening 3 weeks, and have shown resilience the last 2 weeks without QB Love. The scrambling ability that Willis brings to the offense is exactly what this team needs to beat Minnesota this week. The Vikings defense is extremely aggressive in trying to get to the QB, so being able to run will greatly diminish that strength. Look for Willis to have another big day, and GB to get another big win.

In the preseason I wrote about the need of LA Rams to protect QB Stafford and keep him upright. They invested in the o-line, so I expected them to provide proper protection. However, injuries have decimated the Rams o-line, and the Bears have an aggressive defensive front. I expect Stafford to be under constant pressure in week 4. The Bears offense should be able to put up enough against this rebuilding defense to come away with another win.

Washington shocked the world on MNF with an upset of Cincinnati as a 7 point underdog. However, the defense did not force a punt against the Bengals, and they let both Tampa Bay and the Giants move the ball against them. Arizona has some fire power on offense this year with QB Murray, WR Harrison Jr and RB Conner. I expect Arizona will continue to have offensive success this week, and come away with a big win.

Buffalo also had great success on MNF against Jacksonville, but I don’t think that is saying much. The Jaguars are struggling, and haven’t done anything offensively since the first half of week 1. Buffalo has struggled with playoff teams in the past, and Baltimore is a different test than prior 3 opponents. Baltimore’s offense has enough fire power to match Buffalo score for score, and the Ravens defense will be toughest test Bills have seen this year. Look for Baltimore to take care of business on SNF.

Here are the week 4 contest picks:

Team	Circa Millions line	SuperContest line	DraftKings line
Atlanta	-2.5	-2.5	-1.5
Green Bay	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5
Chicago	-3	-2.5	-2.5
Arizona	-3.5	-3.5	-3.5
Baltimore	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5

New Mexico

Last week the new system I’m working on identified 4 games with value and worth a play, but they only went 1-3. That brings New Mexico to a season record of 7-9.

In prior weeks there has been overlap between New Mexico and my original system in the selections they identify. However, this week is different, New Mexico has identified the opposite side as my original system in 2 games; New Orleans at Atlanta and LA Rams at Chicago. Love this head to head test of systems, can’t wait to see which one “wins”.

Here are the week 4 picks for New Mexico:

• New Orleans +3
• LA Rams +3
• Denver +8
• Detroit -3.5

Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.