2025 Week 15 NFL Contest Picks
Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool
You ever have one of those seasons where you start out strong across the board? Fantasy team is looking good, future bets are off to a promising start and making money on weekly bets. Then BAM, you can’t have a winning week to save your life but your still hanging around until week 14. I lost my last entry in survivor. In fantasy, I was winning by 1 point heading into MNF, I had WR McConkey and he had QB Hurts. If only McConkey could’ve caught 2 passes. Somehow I loss fantasy and I miss the playoffs because of it.
The icing on the cake, Denver, looking like an easy cover. The Broncos were up 10 when they turned the ball over on downs with 58 seconds left in the game. The Raiders completed a series of short passes and a run, getting to their own 41 yard line before spiking the ball. Then the Raiders get a 26 yard pass, but Lockett was tackled in bounds with roughly 4 seconds left. Game Over! But wait, a flag is down. For some reason, Broncos player Jones slapped at the ball while Lockett laid on the ground after being tackled. His actions warranted a delay of game flag, stopping the clock and moving the ball ahead 5 more yards. The Raiders get one more play, and out comes the kicking team. Broncos win, but fail to cover. And that series of events is my season in a nut shell. So close each week, but not getting the lucky bounces or calls.
Here is a look at the contest performance through week 14:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | DraftKings | SuperContest |
| Last Week: | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Overall: | 35-34-1 | 38-32 | 34-34-2 |
Week 15 picks
Running behind this week, so these are going to be quicker than usual. The Browns defense is strong upfront, and the Bears offensive line might struggle in slowing down the front and proving QB Williams with time to pass. The Browns defense is also good at slowing down the run. The Bears defense is not as good, and the Browns offense should be able to run successfully and find gaps in the secondary for stretch plays.
The Patriots have the better record, have already beaten the Bills and are at home. So why is Buffalo favored? Because Buffalo is a top 5 team in the NFL and the Patriots are not. New England has benefited from an easy schedule.
The Saints stole won on the road last week against Tampa Bay, and now look to do the same against the other NFC South division contender, the Panthers. This time the Saints are playing at home, and get that raucous crowd behind them. The rookie QB is looking better each week, but of course it helps when you have WR Olave to throw to, and defenses are giving you wide open running lanes. Saints steal another one.
The Lions are in a must win situation. The Rams are on fire and QB Stafford looks like the league MVP. However, he has struggled with strong defensive fronts that can generate pressure and put him on the ground. The Lions are good at that, and should give Stafford fits all day. This feels like a last second field goal to win type of game, I’ll take the extra points.
Miami has been playing better in the 2nd half of the season, and are looking like they might repeat last season 2nd half turnaround again. The Steelers have not been consistent and the Arthur Smith offense looks predictable. If they aren’t able to turn some singles into home runs the offense really struggles. Miami steals another win on MNF.
Here are the week 15 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Circa line | DraftKings line | SuperContest line |
| Cleveland | +7.5 | +7.5 | +7.5 |
| Buffalo | 0 | -1.5 | -1 |
| New Orleans | +2.5 | +2.5 | +2.5 |
| Detroit | +6 | +5.5 | +6 |
| Miami | +3.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 |
Original Model picks for DraftKings Pick’em
The original model had another good performance in week 14, once again going 3-2. That brings its overall record to 39-31 on the season.
The week 14 model alignment picks went 1-1 after the Raiders got the last second covering field goal. That leaves the season performance with a losing record at 7-8 ATS. The systems are aligned on 1 pick this week, Miami, so a chance to get back to .500 on the season.
No head-to-head matchups in week 14 leaving the record at 6-2 in favor of the original model. There are no head-to-head matchups this week, so the original model will continue with it’s domination.
Here are the week 15 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Houston | -9.5 |
| Baltimore | -2.5 |
| Denver | +2.5 |
| Minnesota | +6.5 |
| Miami | +3.5 |
