2025 Week 6 NFL Contest Picks
Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool
Another week another 3-2 performance from the New Mexico model. Wait, that’s exactly how last weeks article started. Unfortunately, it’s still true, and will most likely be the case each week. In reviewing the performance for the New Mexico model over the last few years, the performance is around 64%. I shouldn’t expect it to pump out 4-1 or 5-0 weeks. It can happen, but it’s build for reliable consistency. But that’s okay because a 3-2 performance in cash games will get you 14.5% ROI, which is a nice weekly return. However, if this performance continues, I might need to consider a name change for the model.
The early Sunday games was awesome. It was the first time this season I had 4 picks playing at the same time. Thank goodness for YouTube TV Multiview, and the ability to watch 4 games at the same time. The Cowboys and Colts were taking care of business in a serious way. That was nice because then I only had to worry about 2 games instead of 4. The Saints started out a little slow, but then were able to force 5 turnovers and take the game over, especially in the 2nd half.
The Eagles were another story. Philadelphia started strong and held a 10-3 lead at halftime. The Eagles got the ball to start the 2nd half and extended the lead to 14 points on that drive, and that’s how the 3rd quarter ended. I thought I had a chance of 4-0, but the Broncos had a different idea in the 4th quarter. Denver scored on all 3 drives in the 4th quarter, scoring 18 points and taking a 21-17 lead. It’s like a switch was flipped, and I new I was destined for another 3-2 week.
That was certainly true, and the Buccaneers made sure of it. QB Mayfield is playing out of his mind right now. Seattle did manage to come back and hold a 7 point lead late in the game, but it didn’t last. Tampa tied it at 35, but the way Darnold was playing for Seattle, it felt like he was going to lead the team down for a game winning field goal. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen. Darnold threw and interception on the 2nd play, and Tampa Bay got the game winning field goal instead.
Here is a look at the contest performance through week 5:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | DraftKings | SuperContest |
| Last Week: | 3-2 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Overall: | 16-9 | 18-7 | 15-9-1 |
Week 6 picks
New Mexico model
I posted on Thursday about the Philadelphia pick. Sadly the Eagles continued their performance from the 4th quarter against Denver, and were never really in this game. Kind of the worse case scenario as I had to enter all 5 picks on Thursday, and now I start in a 0-1 hole on the week without seeing the injury and practice participation notes from Friday. Bad sign of things to come?
Dallas makes a return to the ticket after a dominating win last week against the Jets. The New Mexico model has the Cowboys offense ranked 3rd overall in the league. The defense improved from 32nd to 30th after it’s performance last week. Carolina is an average team according to the model. The Panthers are ranked 15th both on offense and defense. The difference in offense is astronomical, and should be more than 3 points.
I keep going back and forth on Tampa Bay this year. The matchups and situations are driving the decisions more than anything. This week, the model is back on Tampa Bay laying the points against the 49ers. This game has a lot of similarities to the Dallas at Carolina game. In fact, the model has Carolina and San Francisco rated exactly the same. It also has Tampa with a strong offense, but instead of a bottom 5 defense like Dallas, the Buccaneers have an average defense, making them a better balanced team. The 49ers had extra time to rest, but still dealing with lots of injuries and now must travel cross country and play in the Florida humidity.
The Chiefs look like a different team since WR Worthy returned from injury. They have someone to stretch the field, which can help Kelce get open underneath and open the run game for Hunt/Pacheco. The model has the Chiefs rated as an above average team with the 12th ranked offense and 10th rated defense. The visiting Lions are rated a lot better. The model has the Lions with the 2nd best offense and the 4th best defense. The New Mexico model thinks the Lions should be the favorite. I’ll happily take the points with the better team.
The Falcons stats are the opposite of what the New Mexico model is looking for at this point in the season. Atlanta’s defense is rated 3rd in the league, but the offense is struggling with a ranking of 25th. Buffalo is a top team in the league according to the model with the 5th rated offense and 10th rated defense. The model expects the Bills offensive success and the Falcons offensive struggles to continue this week.
Here are the week 6 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Circa line | DraftKings line | SuperContest line |
| Philadelphia | -7 | -7.5 | -7 |
| Dallas | -3 | -3.5 | -3 |
| Tampa Bay | -3 | -3.5 | -3 |
| Detroit | +2 | +1.5 | +2.5 |
| Buffalo | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 |
Original Model
The original model went 3-2 in week 5. That brings its overall record to 17-8 on the season. The Dolphins and Seahawks were the losers last week. Hopefully the original model gets back to its 4-1 ways this week.
The systems aligned on Seattle last week. The Seahawks were unable to cover, dropping the aligned plays to 3-2 on the season. The 2 models are aligned on 1 pick again this week, Buffalo.
Here are the week 6 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Pittsburgh | -4.5 |
| Jacksonville | -1.5 |
| Miami | +4.5 |
| New Orleans | +3.5 |
| Buffalo | -4.5 |
