NFL Week 1 Picks
The 2026 NFL season is already off and running in spectacular fashion. We were treated to a Super Bowl rematch in Seattle to kick things off, and then the league made history Thursday night at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, where the San Francisco 49ers dismantled the Los Angeles Rams 27-7 in the first-ever regular-season NFL game played in Australia.
Now attention turns to Sunday’s full 13-game slate, and the four models have been hard at work generating picks for both DraftKings pool entries and the betting window. Here’s everything I’m on and why.
DraftKings Pool Entries
I have four entries in the pool this week, each running a dedicated model. The lines below are from the pool itself, posted last week.
Entry 1 — Original Model
| Pick | Line |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | +3.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | +2.5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -4.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -1.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -3.5 |
The Original Model is hitting both sides of the value spectrum this week. It loves two underdog spots — Indianapolis getting 3.5 at home against Baltimore and Carolina getting 3 points against Chicago — while also endorsing three favorites it believes are underpriced (Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh).
Entry 2 — New Mexico Model
| Pick | Line |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | -4.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -3.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | -1.5 |
| NY Giants | +2.5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -2.5 |
The New Mexico Model agrees with the Original on Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The Giants getting points in John Harbaugh’s debut on Sunday Night Football is a contrarian lean against Dallas. Kansas City closing out Monday Night Football against Denver rounds out the card.
Entry 3 — Zed Model
| Pick | Line |
|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +1.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +3.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | +2.5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -4.5 |
| NY Giants | +2.5 |
Fresh off its Melbourne debut, the Zed Model comes in with a dog-heavy card. Four of five picks are underdogs or plus-money situations. Zed finds value with Houston at home against Buffalo — a scheduling and rest spot it likes — and again endorses Indianapolis and Carolina. Philadelphia as a favorite is Zed’s lone chalk play.
Entry 4 — AIP Model
| Pick | Line |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -1.5 |
| NY Jets | +1.5 |
| New Orleans Saints | +7.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -1.5 |
| NY Giants | +2.5 |
Interestingly, AIP has Buffalo -1.5 while Zed has Houston +1.5 in the same game. When models diverge like this, it reflects a genuine market tension; we respect both reads and let them play out across entries. New Orleans +7.5 against Detroit is AIP’s biggest underdog play of the week, identifying the Saints’ implied probability as better than their number suggests. The Jets getting 1.5 against Tennessee directly conflicts with New Mexico’s Tennessee play — another fascinating clash we’ll be tracking closely.
The Giants appear on three of four entries. That’s about as close to a model consensus as you can get.
Model Consensus: Personal Betting Action
When I look across all four models and identify the most agreed-upon picks to put real money behind them. Here’s where I’m betting this week, with the lines locked in:
Spread Bets
| Pick | Line | Models Backing |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | +3 | Original, Zed |
| Indianapolis Colts | +3.5 | Original, Zed |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -6 | Original, New Mexico |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -6 | Original, New Mexico, Zed |
| Minnesota Vikings | -2.5 | Original, AIP |
| NY Giants | +3 | New Mexico, Zed, AIP |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -2.5 | New Mexico |
Moneyline Bets
| Team | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers | +140 | Good ML value for a team we’re backing on the spread |
| Indianapolis Colts | +145 | Home dog with strong model support — excellent payout |
| Tennessee Titans | -122 | New Mexico’s ML conviction play |
| NY Giants | +136 | Three models on this team; ML adds strong return potential |
A few things stand out here. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are the two clearest consensus picks across all models — both show up in multiple entries and we’re backing them at bigger numbers on the betting side than the pool offers. NY Giants +3 and the moneyline at +136 is our most intriguing play of the week: three separate models flagged this game, and getting better than even money on a team with three model endorsements is exactly the kind of edge we look for.
The Carolina +3 / +140 combo and Indianapolis +3.5 / +145 combo represent our top underdog plays with moneyline upside baked in. If either hits outright, the returns are significant.
