NFL Week 9 Best Bets

Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool

Of course the week I make the comment that I want to win the $100K Circa boobie prize, I go 3-2 and take myself out of the running. Last weeks performance was good enough disrupt the boobie prize chances, but not good enough to change the potential contest outcome. Guess I will just be a donator to the prize pool this year. That’s okay I’ll try again next year, and use the rest of this year to refine both systems.

Last week I noted how my new model, New Mexico, had been a fan of Cleveland this season, nearly recommending them each week. With the injury to QB Watson, I expected the offense to take off under Winston, and the Browns WR’s to be fantasy options again. I didn’t expect Cleveland to win against Baltimore, but rather to keep it close. The Browns had other ideas, and Winston found Tillman for the game winning touchdown. This game was never in doubt, as the Ravens could not pull away.

The Jaguars returned from London and got to host one of the hottest teams in the league. I thought the post London rally that the Jaguars experienced the last few years had potential to repeat in 2024 after a big win 2-weeks ago. This game didn’t start out that great for the Jaguars as the Packers jumped out to an early 10-0 lead. However, by halftime the Jaguars were back in it at 13-10, and then Jacksonville took the lead 17-13 after starting the 2nd half with the ball. Green Bay then responded with 2 TDs of their own, and I thought this was going to be a loser, but the Jaguars were able to tie it at 27 before Green Bay kicked the game winning field goal.

I expected the return of Tua to ignite the Dolphins offense. I also expected Arizona to be a little slow in the 4th coming off a MNF final second field goal win and then traveling across the country to play in the Miami heat. It started out fine for Miami getting out to a 10-0 lead and then a 13-7 lead at halftime. After extending the lead to 20-10, the wheels came off for Miami. The Cardinals got a safety, and on the ensuing possession scored a TD to make it 20-18. The Dolphins did respond with a TD of their own, but they couldn’t stop the Cardinals in the 2nd half, and Arizona once again kicked a game winning field goal. These losses are the hardest, because you seemingly have a chance throughout the game, only for it to be taken away.

For the Indianapolis and Houston game, I noted the number of 1-score games the Texans played. I took the Colts and the points due to that, and it worked out well. The Colts jumped out to the early lead 10-3 at the end of the 1st quarter, but at halftime it was Houston with the 17-10 lead. At this point I thought the chances of a cover were fading, especially when Houston extended the lead to 10, and keeping it at 10 after trading field goals. Fortunately, Indianapolis was able to get a late touchdown to get inside the number, and I was heading to SNF looking for a 4-1 record.

Unfortunately, I had Dallas in the SNF matchup at San Francisco. It did start out looking good, only trailing by 3 at the end of the 1st and leading 10-6 at halftime. Then the 2nd half started and the 49ers marched right down the field for a touchdown. Dallas threw an interception on the ensuing drive, giving San Francisco a short field for another touchdown and a 10-point lead. Dallas then had a 3-play, 6-yard drive and gave the ball right back to the red hot 49ers who proceeded to go on a 75-yard touchdown drive and extend the lead to 17 points. It was over, and so were my hopes of a 4-1 week.

After a 3-2 week, my chances of winning the Circa boobie prize took a big hit. Here’s a look at the contest records after week 8:

Contest Results	Circa Millions	SuperContest	DraftKings
Last week	3-2	3-2	3-2
Overall	15-25	14-25-1	15-25

Week 9 Picks

In an interesting twist, New Mexico has abandoned Cleveland after being a backer for weeks, and now the original system has picked up where New Mexico left off. The positive impact that Winston had on the offense was just as expected, he loves to push the ball down the field, and with the Browns power run game the play action pass can have a huge impact with explosive plays. Look for that to continue in week 9 with a defensive battle with the Chargers, who must travel across the country and play early.

With the switch to veteran Flacco at QB, I will once again be a backer of the Colts. Flacco makes the offense 2 dimensional with the ability to run and pass. A balanced offense is key to Steichen’s offense. The Vikings have been trending in the wrong direction after a fantastic start, and I expect the Colts to have a chance to win this game. At worst, they keep it close and cover another spread.

After fading the Packers last week on the road, I will now take the Packers as a dog on the road. Detroit has been blowing out opponents the last 2 weeks, and it seems almost too good to be true to get them only laying a field goal in this game. However, the Lions have not faced a defense as good as the Packers this year, and will be tested offensively for the first time in a while. I think the Packers keep this close, and have a chance to win like the Colts.

Despite losing last week, Jacksonville looked much better, and they covered the spread. I expect the Jaguars to continue to have success, at least in keeping the score close. I’ll take Pederson, the Jaguars and the touchdown in Pederson’s return to Philadelphia where he won a Super Bowl and then ran out of town.

I’ll close out the week 9 selections with a MNF play on Kansas City. Tampa Bay is devastated by injuries on offense, limiting ability to be explosive, and the defense hasn’t been that great to at all, so no reason to think they will slow down the Chiefs. Kansas City’s defense has been playing fantastic, especially upfront lead by all-pro DL Jones. The amount of pressure/havoc he causes will make QB Mayfield scramble for his life. Look for Kansas City to dominate Tampa Bay on MNF.

Here are the week 9 contest picks:

Team	Circa Millions line	SuperContest line	DraftKings line
Cleveland	+1.5	+2	+1.5
Indianapolis	+5.5	+5.5	+5.5
Green Bay	+3	+3	+3.5
Jacksonville	+7	+7.5	+7.5
Kansas City	-8.5	-9	-8.5

New Mexico

Last week I listed all of the games that the new system I’m working liked in week 8, it was 8 games in total, and those picks went 5-3, bringing New Mexico to a season record of 22-19-1. The interesting thing, a little caution could have eliminated the 3 losses. The Titans traded away players before the game, making you wonder about remaining players psyche. The Saints were without QB Carr again, and the Panthers were starting Young at QB after Dalton hurt his thumb in a car accident. These are examples of why you can’t just rely blindly on a system. The data can’t make the decision for you, people still need to make the decision, but data helps simplify and expedite the decision making. Just remember to apply simple logical thought before finalizing the bet.

New Mexico had a strong showing against the original model in week 8 going 2-0 in the head-to-head matchups. New Mexico now takes the lead with a 7-5 overall record in head-to-head selections. The good news is that both teams aligned on Indianapolis, and they got a late 4th quarter touchdown to cover the spread. That makes system aligned selection 1-2 on the season.

There are 3 more head-to-head matchups this week. Starting off with LA Chargers at Cleveland and Detroit at Green Bay. The original system has selected the home dogs in Cleveland and Green Bay. New Mexico is not a fan of home dogs, and has taken the opposite side with LA Chargers and Detroit. Then on MNF the original system has selected Kansas City while New Mexico takes the road dog Tampa Bay.

New Mexico has flagged 6 games in total for week 9, but you can use injury logic discussed above to eliminate one of those games (Tampa). Here are all of the week 9 picks for New Mexico:

• LA Chargers -1.5
• Denver +8.5
• Washington -4
• LA Rams -1
• Detroit -2.5
• Tampa Bay +8.5

Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.