NFL Week 12 Best Bets
Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool
The original model has started to heat up a little bit in the 2nd half of the season, going 3-2 for 2 weeks in a row. Why couldn’t it hit 60% of its picks in the first half of the season? New Mexico also turned it around going 4-1 in week 11 after a 2-3 week 10 performance. The new model is now 15-5 in the past 4 weeks, however it continues to flag some public plays, which are winning for the moment, but make me worried about long term success. Both models are now 6-4 in the 2nd half of the season, so it could be an interesting head-to-head contest across the final 9 weeks of football.
Week 12 will be the toughest slate so far this season with 6 teams on bye. Those missing 3 games, plus not playing TNF means there are only 12 games to choose from. Hard to find the right side in nearly 50% of the slate, but every contest player faces same issue. Next week also causes quite the challenge with 3 games on Thanksgiving and 1 game the day after. Since I use a proxy, if I want to play any of those 4 games I must enter my entire entry by Wednesday night. But that’s next weeks problem, for now I’ll focus on the 12 remaining games for week 12.
As expected, the 2 models split last weeks head-to-head matchups. That brings the head-to-head record 11-7 on the season with New Mexico in the lead. Both systems agreed on Buffalo last week, and the Bills took care of business giving the Chiefs their first loss of the season. That brings the aligned systems record to 3-2 on the season. Their are no head-to-head matchups this week, but there are 2 games with system alignment; New England and Green Bay.
Original Model
After back-to-back 3-2 weeks my chances of winning the Circa boobie prize are over, and my only chance to win money in the Circa contest will be to get hot and place in the 4th quarter. DraftKings doesn’t offer any mini-contests, so this entry is toast for the season. Here’s a look at the contest records after week 11:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | SuperContest 1st half | DraftKings |
| Last week | 3-2 | 3-2 | |
| Overall | 22-33 | 15-29-1 | 22-33 |
Original Model – Week 12 Picks
Is any team playing better than the Detroit Lions right now? They are dominating on both sides of the football, and picking against them is like going against a buzz saw. However, that’s exactly what I’m doing this week. The Colts have been solid all season, and find ways to stay in games. I don’t need Indianapolis to win, just keep it close.
Could the Bears have lost in a more excruciating way than last week against the Packers? Now they get another divisional opponent at home. Desperation is high in Chicago, and I expect them to be focused and ready to go in this game. The Bears aggressive defensive front will cause trouble for Darnold, and the Vikings offense will struggle.
The Patriots hit the road to take on a surging Dolphins team. Miami has looked great since Tua returned from injury, but laying a TD against a divisional opponent that has a solid defense seems like too much. I’ll take the Patriots and all those points.
Seattle stole a win last week in San Francisco while Arizona was getting healthy on a late bye week. Not sure Seattle will be as focused for this one, and Arizona can smell the division title. Look for the Cardinals to steal a victory in Seattle.
The 49ers at Packers line has moved 3 points since it was announced that Purdy won’t play in this game. This is just an opportunistic play at a line that is no longer available.
Here are the week 12 Circa and DraftKings picks:
| Team | Circa Millions line | DraftKings line |
| Indianapolis | +7.5 | +7.5 |
| Chicago | +3.5 | +3.5 |
| New England | +7 | +7.5 |
| Arizona | 0 | +0.5 |
| Green Bay | -2 | -2.5 |
New Mexico
Jacksonville was the only dud last week for New Mexico, as the new model returned to recent form with a solid performance in week 11. This really makes me wonder how the week 10 performance turned out so bad, but you can’t win them all.
Here is a look at the New Mexico contest records through week 11:
| Contest Results | SuperContest 2nd half | DraftKings |
| Last week | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Overall | 6-4 | 32-23 |
New Mexico – Week 12 Picks
The Buccaneers offense is a top-10 unit according to New Mexico, and this week they get to go against an average Giants defense. I’m not sure that QB Jones was the problem, sure he hasn’t put up good numbers, but the o-line is allowing 3 sacks a game. How can he throw when he’s under constant pressure and constantly laying on his back looking at the sky. Don’t expect Tommy Cutlets to be the answer, he was sacked 36 times during his 6 starts last year.
New Mexico agrees with the original model and also picks the Patriots to keep this closer than expected. New Mexico has both of these teams rated in the bottom of the league, with Miami right on the cusp of being average. Average vs below average is not a 7 point difference.
Not only does New Mexico have Denver’s defense rated as top-10, it also considers the offense above average. Meanwhile the Raiders are poor and below average in those categories and can’t force any turnovers.
I think every ticket will have Green Bay selected on it. At the discounted line, New Mexico couldn’t help but take a nibble.
New Mexico has the Chargers defense rated tops in the league, but finds their offense to be lacking in efficiency. The Ravens have an above average offense, and knows a thing or 2 about playing against tough defenses. After taking a loss to rival Pittsburgh that was decided by a handful of plays, look for the Ravens to take out some aggression this week.
Here are the week 11 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Super Contest line | DraftKings line |
| Tampa Bay | -6 | -5.5 |
| New England | +7 | +7.5 |
| Denver | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| Green Bay | -2 | -2.5 |
| Baltimore | -3 | -2.5 |
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
