NFL Week 11 Best Bets
Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool
You want to hear God laugh? Just tell him your plans.
Last week I outlined my reasoning for switching to New Mexico for the 2nd half of the season in the SuperContest, and continuing to play the original model in Circa. The opposite of what I wanted then proceeded to follow with a winning week for the original model, and the first losing week for New Mexico in a month. I’m going continue with the plan though, maybe the original model gets hot for the 2nd half and something magical happens, doubtful, but football is a weird game.
After a 3-2 week, my chances of winning the Circa boobie prize are basically eliminated. I’ll need to go 0-5 every week in order to have a chance to win. Here’s a look at the contest records after week 10:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | SuperContest 1st half | DraftKings |
| Last week | 3-2 | 3-2 | |
| Overall | 19-31 | 15-29-1 | 19-31 |
Week 11 Picks
The Browns are coming into week 11 fresh off a bye and finally getting some players healthy. New Orleans made a statement last week in the first week with an interim head coach, can that continue this week? I’m not sure the Saints offense will look as good against this Browns defense. I also expect the Cleveland offense to look much better this week against a poor Saints defense and put up some big numbers.
Pittsburgh comes off a big win at Washington last week, while Baltimore is fresh off a TNF mini-bye. The Steelers offense looks much better with Wilson at QB, and Smith is hitting strides with his play calling once again. That means we should see the Steelers put up big numbers against a Ravens defense that is struggling to find their identity right? So why is Baltimore the favorite on the road? Football betting is like driving on ice, when it doesn’t make sense, just steer into it and stay off the brake. I was a big fan of the Ravens in my preseason magazine, and if they win the division/conference/super bowl, I will win a nice chunk of change. So lets go Ravens!
What team is hotter than Detroit right now? Laying 2-touchdowns is scary in the NFL, but if any team can cover that spread, its the Lions. Meanwhile the Broncos have exceeded expectations so far this season, and I expect that to continue this week against Atlanta.
Undefeated back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City is a 2.5-point underdog at Buffalo. I know Buffalo is playing very well right now, but so many injuries to skill players on offense against a top defense in the league and you have to lay the points. I’ve also mentioned in prior weeks how Buffalo struggles against playoff/championship caliber teams, which is the definition of Kansas City. Like Baltimore, what am I missing? Why is Buffalo favored? It can’t be home field alone. Fine, I’ll do it twice, lets go Bills!
Here are the week 11 Circa and DraftKings picks:
| Team | Circa Millions line | DraftKings line |
| Cleveland | +1 | +0.5 |
| Baltimore | -3 | -3.5 |
| Detroit | -14 | -13.5 |
| Denver | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| Buffalo | -2.5 | -2.5 |
New Mexico
The new model continues to look good despite the 2-3 record last week. The Washington loss was tough as the Commanders gave that game away in the 4th quarter. Tennessee nearly got a cover in LA, but the Chargers stretched the lead to far at one point for the Titans to overcome. And on MNF the Rams could never capitalize on great field position and had to settle for field goals instead of getting touchdowns. Rough week.
Here is a look at the New Mexico contest records through week 10:
| Contest Results | SuperContest 2nd half | DraftKings |
| Last week | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Overall | 2-3 | 28-22 |
The original model won the week 10 head-to-head matchup. That brings the overall record in head-to-head selections to 10-6 in favor of New Mexico. The systems agreed on Denver last week, and the Broncos not only covered, but were a blocked field goal away from winning outright. That brings aligned selections to 2-2 on the season.
There are 2 more head-to-head matchups this week. New Mexico likes New Orleans and Jacksonville while the original model took Cleveland and Detroit. My guess is they will split, but not sure which way. The 2 systems also agree on a game this week, with both forecasting Buffalo to give Kansas City their first loss of the season. Guess I’ll go a little heavy on Buffalo this weekend.
Here are the week 11 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Super Contest line | DraftKings line |
| New Orleans | -1 | -0.5 |
| Jacksonville | +14 | +13.5 |
| Indianapolis | +4 | +3.5 |
| Seattle | +6.5 | +6.5 |
| Buffalo | -2.5 | -2.5 |
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
