NFL Week 10 Best Bets
Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool
After a 3-2 performance in week 8, the original model returned to it’s handicapping glory with another 1-4 week. This does help in the hunt for the worse handicapper prize in the Circa Millions contest. With 16 points, I’m close to the bottom, real close, but there are still some people doing worse, so unless the original model starts cranking out 0-5 weeks, I’m probably not going to win.
On the other hand, New Mexico is performing well. I’ve been running New Mexico in a 2nd DraftKings pool. Currently, New Mexico has a contest result of 26-19 or 57.77%, which is much better than the original model. The start of the season wasn’t the best for New Mexico, but as more data has been fed into the model, the clearer the key has become. This has lead to a 9-1 record for New Mexico the last 2 weeks in the 2nd DraftKings pool. With this performance, I’ve decided to change the model used for the Westgate SuperContest. The SuperContest offers 3-week, 6-week and 9-week mini-contests, so that is 5 chances for New Mexico to still win some money.
I’ll make some updates to the way that New Mexico is tracked to show 2nd half SuperContest results, and the season to date performance in DraftKings. Before we jump into the picks, let’s recap what went wrong in week 9.
After pulling the upset and showing signs of life on offense against Baltimore, I looked for Cleveland to continue that success last week against the Chargers. However, after years of underperforming, the Chargers defense is finally looking like everything it was promised to be under prior HC Staley. The Browns offense never stood a chance, and neither did this pick.
I expected the Jaguars to continue post London success and keep the game at Philadelphia close. It didn’t start out that way, and I was ready to write this game off as a loss at halftime. The Jaguars had some different plans, and with the help of a strong defensive showing in the 2nd half, they clawed their way back into this game. It would end up being the only win I would get last week.
The Packers hosted the Lions at home with a chance to make it a 3-way tie for the NFC North. I expected the Packers to keep this game close, but Detroit had other ideas. It looked like the Lions wanted to make a statement in this game, including top WR St. Brown wearing a Greebay Sucks hoodie into the stadium. The Packers didn’t stand a chance and neither did my pick, but at my NFC North division winner future bets are looking good. I have tickets on both the Lions and Packers, with both in contention and Lions in charge of own destiny. As long as one of them wins the division, I win money, so go Lions go.
The Colts did the opposite of Jacksonville, they lead at halftime, and looked in control of the game. However, the team didn’t show up in the 2nd half, and the Vikings not only came back to win, but they covered the spread too. Probably should’ve known it was going to be a loss when the Colts defense scored only touchdown in first half, but I had blinders on. This left me at 1-3 at the end of Sunday.
Heading into MNF, I had a feeling like 1-4 was possible, but it was the Chiefs at home against an injured Tampa Bay team, what could go wrong? Well, someone forgot to tell Tampa that they didn’t stand a chance in this game, and the Buccaneers battled into overtime. Once there, I had no chance of winning the bet, but it never looked good anyway. My 1-4 week was solidified as the Chiefs took the opening OT drive down the field for a touchdown and 6-point win.
After a 1-4 week, my chances of winning the Circa boobie prize improved slightly. However, there are a few people still doing worse, so still work to do. Here’s a look at the contest records after week 9:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | SuperContest 1st half | DraftKings |
| Last week | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Overall | 16-29 | 15-29-1 | 16-29 |
Week 10 Picks
As mentioned above, I’m continuing with original model picks in the Circa Millions and DraftKings pools for the 2nd half of the season. Here are the picks the original model suggested for those contests.
The favorite has won and covered all international games so far this season, so why shouldn’t the Giants continue this trend in Germany? The Panthers won for the 2nd time last week against New Orleans, but the defense is so terrible that even Daniel Jones should be able to have a big game against them.
New Orleans started the season 2-0 and was the talk of the NFL. Then in week 3 they ran into the Philadelphia buzz saw of a defense, that showed the blue print on how to stop the Saints offense. It hasn’t been the same for the Saints since, and even with the return of QB Carr last week, the Saints lost for the 7th straight time to the Panthers, and HC Allen was fired. Now is a perfect buy low spot on the Saints. The HC firing should be a wake up call to the rest of the team, and now guys are playing for contracts next year. Look for the Saints to keep this close, and possibly win at home.
Last week Denver was the most popular underdog selection I’ve seen in a while. Baltimore was coming off the upset loss to Cleveland and wanted to make a statement, and the Broncos never stood a chance in that game. Now the public is turning on Denver and I’m ready to swoop in and buy low. Getting over a TD with this defense in a divisional rivalry is almost too good to be true. I’ll take the points.
San Francisco gets CMC back this week, and the offense should be able to hit strides we haven’t seen regularly, especially against this Tampa defense. The Buccaneers offense should be able to score some points, but not enough to keep up with a SF team coming in fresh off a bye week. The 49ers win big in CMC’s return.
The Dolphins offense looks much better with Tua back at QB. The Rams are looking solid after their bye, but have also been quite lucky. The Rams defense has looked like a rebuilding squad, and I expect Dolphins offense to take advantage and pull the upset.
Here are the week 10 Circa and DraftKings picks:
| Team | Circa Millions line | DraftKings line |
| NY Giants | -6.5 | -6.5 |
| New Orleans | +3.5 | +3.5 |
| Denver | +8.5 | +7.5 |
| San Francisco | -6 | -6.5 |
| Miami | +1.5 | +1.5 |
New Mexico
The week 9 picks went 5-1, bringing New Mexico to a season record of 27-20-1. As mentioned at the beginning of this post, I’ll now being using New Mexico for my contest picks in the Westgate SuperContest. I’ve been running New Mexico on a 2nd entry at DraftKings and that entry is currently 26-19. Next week I’ll update the posts to include the 2nd half SuperContest and full season DraftKings records.
New Mexico had another strong showing against the original model in week 9 going 3-0 in the head-to-head matchups. New Mexico extends the lead to a 10-5 overall record in head-to-head selections. The system aligned selections remain 1-2 on the season without a pick last week.
The systems disagree on 1 game this week; Miami at LA Rams. The original system favors Miami while New Mexico likes the Rams. Given the recent results in head-to-head matchups, I’ll lean towards New Mexico being correct for MNF. Both systems align on Denver this week, hopefully the Broncos can cover the spread and get the aligned record to .500.
Here are the week 10 picks for New Mexico:
| Team | Super Contest line | DraftKings line |
| Buffalo | -4 | -3.5 |
| Washington | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| Denver | +8 | +7.5 |
| Tennessee | +7.5 | +7.5 |
| LA Rams | -1 | -1.5 |
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
