2025 Week 14 NFL Contest Picks

Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool

I hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving. I know I ate way too much turkey, but I didn’t get any good naps. Unfortunately the New Mexico model didn’t have a good week, going 2-3 and dropping to almost .500 in the Circa and Westgate contests. Luckily, I still have a survivor entry alive and ready to go for week 14.

The Lions weren’t able to get things going on Thanksgiving day against the Packers, but bounced back on TNF against the Cowboys. Sadly I didn’t have the Lions against the Cowboys, but I did have them against the Packers, and I went into the weekend with an 0-1 record.

The early Sunday games provided some optimism. Every time the Falcons scored the Jets were able to answer, and keep the game close until they stole the win in the end. The Colts were a different story. At times the passing attack looked unstoppable, but the rushing game was never really able to get going. It not only cost me the pick with the loss, but also almost made me take the loss in fantasy. I really need the Colts to get RB Taylor going the rest of the season if I want to win. A win this week would help.

The Steelers started out looking strong at home against Buffalo. Then the offense took a turn for the worst, the crowd booed them, and CBS analyst Tony Romo starting calling them out for being boring and predictable. The Steelers defense did a good job of slowing down the powerful Bills offense the best they could, but the offense could never get going. I headed into SNF with a 1-3 record and really needing Washington to come through against Denver. Fortunately, the Commanders are getting healthy and were able to put up a strong fight at home, getting the cover.

Here is a look at the contest performance through week 13:

Contest Results	Circa Millions	DraftKings	SuperContest
Last Week:	2-3	2-3	2-3
Overall:	33-31-1	36-29	32-31-2

Week 14 picks

The New Mexico model was very heavy on the favorites to start the season, but has turned it’s attention to the underdogs the last few weeks. Once again in week 14, the New Mexico model is in love with the dogs.

Washington is finally starting to get healthy, and have a lot of speed at WR with McLauren and Samuel. They also get the return of QB Daniels this week after missing time with an elbow injury. The Vikings are struggling at every aspect of football right now, and the quarterback position has been inconsistent. Who would’ve thought that Carson Wentz was the best QB on this roster? Certainly not me. The Commanders are still growing as a team, and struggle against playoff teams, but the Vikings are not a playoff team.

I hate the Chicago Bears. I was not a fan of them in the preseason, and if they win the NFC North division they will cost me money. I have bets on both Green Bay and Detroit to win the division, so need the Packers to win this game. However, the New Mexico model thinks this game will stay close, so I will take the points and hope the Bears can keep that rushing attack going for 1 more week.

The Raiders are not a good team, and I didn’t expect much from them this season. However, I did expect better than this. The offense didn’t show much improvement after the firing of OC Kelly, and I doubt it will perform any better against the top defense in the NFL. I expected a lot from this Broncos team this year and bet them to win the division, conference and Super Bowl in June. Taking care of business against bad teams is must for title contenders, and I expect the Broncos to do that this week.

I didn’t expect much from the Texans this season, as I wasn’t sold on the o-line overhaul in the offseason. The defense has done a good job of keeping them in games and giving this team a chance to win each week. Houston also survived the loss of QB Stroud for a few weeks while he was dealing with injury. If they could only get the rushing attack going this team could be troublesome this time of year. The Chiefs defense isn’t performing as well as the season has progressed, and the offense struggles against strong defenses. It would work out best for me if the Chiefs win, but it comes down to a last second kick.

The Eagles are struggling at the wrong time of the season. I have a bet for Philadelphia to win the NFC East, so I could use them getting another win this week since the Cowboys have already lost on TNF. I was big on the Chargers in the preseason, and they could use a win to keep pace with the Broncos if they want to win the AFC West. The Chargers defense has gotten better each week, and the rushing attack is looking solid they last few week. The hand injury to QB Herbert has me a little nervous, but nothing about the Eagles is very scary right now. These teams are rated similar, so I’ll take the home team and the points on Monday Night.

Here are the week 14 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:

Team	Circa line	DraftKings line	SuperContest line
Washington	+2.5	+1.5	+2
Chicago	+6.5	+6.5	+6.5
Denver	-7.5	-7.5	-7.5
Houston	+3	+3.5	+3.5
LA Chargers	+2.5	+2.5	+2.5