In Game Betting – Drive Results
Using Red Zone results to find optimal in game betting spots
One of my favorite things to do while watching an NFL game is betting on the drive result. The offensive team making a big play of 10+ yards increases the likelihood of scoring on the drive, and if they have 2 plays of 10+ yards on the same drive then they are almost guaranteed to score on that drive. For drive stoppers, sacks and holding penalties are more likely to lead to punts than to scores. Those are some of the basic principals that I use when making an in game bet on the drive result.
However, these are well known probabilities, and the sportsbooks have that information baked into the algorithms that create the in game betting odds. But getting more specific about the drive result (TD, FG, Punt, etc.) provides much better payout odds as these are more difficult to predict accurately. Fortunately for us, the red zone stats performance of a team can give us the insights needed to decide whether to make that bet to be a TD or a FG, and I created a dashboard that shows the historic red zone performance by team for both offense and defense.
The photo on the right shows a teams red zone touchdown rate and the average number of red zone touchdowns per game. This chart clearly shows which teams finish in the red zone, and which teams are forced to settle for a field goal. Having the year over year results also shows whether it’s just a one season blip or if the team performs consistently year after year.
Kansas City is clearly prepared to finish when they get to the red zone each year, and it’s not a surprise they are competing for championships each year too. I’ll be betting on KC to score TDs whenever they are in the red zone. Detroit was magical in the red zone last year, but I want to see if they can do it again this year before I just start betting them. A few other teams I’ll be betting to score TD’s in the RZ will be Philadelphia, Buffalo and San Francisco. Looking at the bottom of the chart, these are teams I will target to kick a field goal when reaching the red zone. I’m particularly interested in betting on Houston, NY Jets, Washington and Carolina to kick field goals.
Of course you can’t just bet each of those teams games and drives blindly. You also need to know the opponents defensive success in the red zone. When looking for a game to have good in game betting options, I consider the results from both charts. The photo on the left shows the defensive red zone performance in the same format as the offensive chart.
Using this data, I’ll be looking to bet on Arizona, Chicago, Kansas City, Detroit and Las Vegas opponents to score touchdowns. Dropping to the bottom of the chart, I’ll be looking for San Francisco, New Orleans, NY Jets and Denver opponents to be forced to kick field goals instead of scoring touchdowns.
