NFL Week 15 Best Bets
Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool
Last week I made the change to run New Mexico in the Circa Millions 4th quarter contest instead of the original model, and after the 1st week, it is looking like the right decision. The original model went 2-3 last week while New Mexico went 3-2. It’s nice that New Mexico had a winning record, but 3-2 is not enough to win a Circa Millions quarter, so the model must perform better if I have any chance of success and placing in the 4th quarter contest.
New Mexico swept the head-to-head matchups last week. That brings the head-to-head matchups record to 13-7 in favor of New Mexico. Both systems agreed on Pittsburgh last week, and the Steelers came through with the cover bringing the aligned systems record to 6-4 on the season. The systems disagree on the Pittsburgh at Philadelphia game, so hopefully once again New Mexico will prevail. There are no games with system alignment, so that record will stand at 6-4 for 1 more week.
New Mexico
Before week 14, New Mexico was ranked 154th in the DraftKings pick ’em pool. After a 3-2 performance in week 14, New Mexico improved its ranking, moving up slightly to the 133rd position. I’m glad that New Mexico continues to improve it’s standing in the DraftKings contest, but I’m running out of time to make up more ground.
The DraftKings season long pick ’em pools are a little different than the contests in Las Vegas. Besides every game having a half point line to avoid pushes, the DraftKings pools are based on 80 picks instead of 90. The 10 less games is because DraftKings pool only runs through week 17, and requires the contestants to use a “bye” week. I have not used the bye week for this entry yet, with the plan of week 17 being the bye week, so I only have 10 picks left for this entry. I’m going to need the current contestants ranked higher to have a shitty couple of weeks so I can move up and make some cash.
Here is a look at the New Mexico contest records through week 14:
| Contest Results | SuperContest 2nd half | DraftKings | Circa Millions 4th Qtr |
| Last week | 3-2 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Overall | 17-8 | 43-27 | 3-2 |
New Mexico – Week 15 Picks
The New York Giants are a bad football team. New Mexico has them rated 28th overall in the league, and it does look like this locker room quit on Daboll. The quarterback position is a big problem, but that’s because they decided to release the best QB on the team and blame the seasons performance on him. The Ravens are on the opposite end of the spectrum, they are a good football team. And despite the Giants not looking like a team that wants to play, the difference between a good team and a bad team is more like 7-10 points, not 16.5. This line is inflated, and I’ll take the extra value with the shitty Giants.
Miami has seen improved offensive play since Tua returned from his concussion earlier this season, but they are still an average team. The Texans have had struggles on offense and defense the last few weeks, but they still grade out as an above average football team with the 2nd best defense according to New Mexico. Look for HC Ryans to get the defense going after Tua and the rest of the Dolphins, and the Texans to bounce back with a big win this week.
Kansas City has the best record in the NFL, but they aren’t covering any spreads. They’ve gotten quite lucky with end of game field goals so far. Lets just say New Mexico is not a fan of the Chiefs, as it has them rated as an average football team. Cleveland enters this game rated as the worst team in the NFL according to New Mexico, and QB Winston, despite being an offensive spark, is also an offensive liability with all of those interceptions. Look for Kansas City to get a cover this week against the struggling Browns.
New Mexico has both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia rated as above average teams. Despite the same rating, New Mexico actually has Pittsburgh rated a few spots ahead of Philadelphia, but they get the same point allocation because they are in the same cluster of results. I’m not sure why this line is 5 but I’ll gladly take all the extra points with the visiting team.
In the SNF matchup, New Mexico has the Packers rated as a good football team, and the Seahawks are average. I have a ticket on the LA Rams to win the NFC West, and they moved 1 step closer to achieving that with a win over San Francisco on TNF. Green Bay beating the Seahawks on SNF will move LA Rams into first place of the NFC West, so lets go Packers.
Here are the week 15 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Super Contest line | DraftKings line | Circa Millions line |
| NY Giants | +16.5 | +14.5 | +16.5 |
| Houston | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| Kansas City | -4 | -4.5 | -4 |
| Pittsburgh | +5.5 | +4.5 | +5 |
| Green Bay | -3 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
Original Model
Here’s a look at the contest records after week 14, it’s clear why I’ve changed both Circa Millions and the SuperContest to use the New Mexico system:
| Contest Results | Circa Million Qtrs 1-3 | SuperContest 1st half | DraftKings |
| Last week | 2-3 | ||
| Overall | 27-38 | 15-29-1 | 29-41 |
Original Model – Week 15 Picks
Here are the week 15 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Carolina | -1.5 |
| Detroit | -1.5 |
| Philadelphia | -4.5 |
| Chicago | +7.5 |
| Las Vegas | +4.5 |
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
