NFL Week 14 Best Bets
Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool
The Original model went 11-9 in the 3rd quarter of the NFL season after another 3-2 result in week 13. I wish it had been performing this well all season instead of just recently. New Mexico had another stellar week going 4-1 in week 13. That brings the current 6-week run to 23-7. The decision to switch to New Mexico for the 2nd half of the SuperContest has been the right decision so far, and if it wasn’t for that 2-3 result in week 10, I’d be in a much better position.
Now we are entering the 4th quarter of the season for the Circa Millions contest, and based on the results so far, I’ve decided to make another change. Starting in week 14 I will run the New Mexico model in all contests. As you can see from the results below, the New Mexico model performed much better than the original model all season, and I do believe it gives me the best chance to to place in a mini-contest. I will still post the original models picks, but they will be at the end with a greater focus on New Mexico.
There weren’t any head-to-head matchups between the models last week, so those results still remain in favor of New Mexico 11-7. Both models agreed on 2 games last week, Baltimore and Denver, with the results being split. That brings aligned picks to 5-4 on the season. There are 2 head-to-head matchups this week; Carolina at Philly and Vegas at Tampa. Hopefully New Mexico will sweep the board and extend the lead, but most likely scenario is they split the results. Both models also agree on Pittsburgh, so alignment has a chance to fall to .500 on the season with another loss.
New Mexico
I’m happy to say that after going 4-1 in week 13 the New Mexico entry has moved up from 216th last week to 154th heading into week 14. While I completely hope New Mexico continues to fire on all cylinders, I’m reminded that hope isn’t a strategy. In reality, New Mexico will probably go 3-2 each week moving forward, if not worse. Most likely, it will perform worse, simply to correct the 23-7 result its been on the past 6-weeks.
Here is a look at the New Mexico contest records through week 13:
| Contest Results | SuperContest 2nd half | DraftKings |
| Last week | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Overall | 14-6 | 40-25 |
New Mexico – Week 14 Picks
Cleveland is rated as the worst team in the league according to New Mexico. Pittsburgh is rated as above average, with exceptional scores on the defense. Despite my expectations of the Steelers offense slowing down, they continue to overcome their shortcomings. Look for that to continue this week.
The Panthers have been competitive the last few weeks, and have moved up slightly from bad to below average. But they are right on the cusp of having a bad rating once again if they suddenly regress against better competition. The Eagles are only rated as above average by New Mexico, which kind of surprises me as someone that invested in the Eagles to win the NFC East, go OVER the win total, win the NFC Championship and win the Super Bowl. But 12.5 points is a lot, too many for an above average vs below average game. I’ll take the points.
Despite the .500 record, Tampa Bay grades out as a good football team. On the other side, Las Vegas is the 31st rated team according to New Mexico. The difference between a good team and a poor team is more than 7 points. Add in Las Vegas coming off devasting loss to rival Kansas City and having to fly across the country and this game shouldn’t be close.
Arizona is an average team while Seattle is a below average team. This line is reflected properly according to New Mexico, but Arizona getting another shot at Seattle after that stinker 2 weeks ago is too good to bypass.
The Bills are rated the 2nd best team in the league and the Rams are rated as average. As a person holding a Rams to win the NFC West ticket at +400, I really want Los Angeles to win this game. However, Buffalo is playing way too good right now, and I’m not sure how that happens.
Here are the week 14 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Super Contest line | DraftKings line | Circa Millions line |
| Pittsburgh | -6.5 | -6.5 | -7 |
| Carolina | +12.5 | +12.5 | +12.5 |
| Tampa Bay | -6.5 | -6.5 | -7 |
| Arizona | -2.5 | -2.5 | -3 |
| Buffalo | -4.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
Original Model
After the original model went 11-9 in the Circa Millions 3rd Quarter contest, it completely blew my chances of winning the boobie prize. Here’s a look at the contest records after week 13:
| Contest Results | Circa Million Qtrs 1-3 | SuperContest 1st half | DraftKings |
| Last week | 3-2 | 3-2 | |
| Overall | 27-38 | 15-29-1 | 27-38 |
Original Model – Week 14 Picks
Here are the week 14 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Jacksonville | +3.5 |
| Las Vegas | +6.5 |
| Pittsburgh | -6.5 |
| Philadelphia | -12.5 |
| Chicago | +3.5 |
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
