NFL Week 13 Best Bets
Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool
With the slate of Thanksgiving games, and the contest rules about submitting entire card if playing weekday games, week 13 has been split into 2 posts. The new model, New Mexico, liked a game on Thursday and the Friday game, so it’s entry was submitted early, here is the link to that post if you want to see games flagged for the weekend.
After back-to-back 3-2 weeks, the original model returned to its losing ways going 2-3 in week 12 contest plays. I’ve been trying to figure out what was so different about 2 years ago when the original model hit 70% on the season and finished T-3 in DraftKings contest. The only difference I can think of is the way the contest require picks to be submitted. The DraftKings contest allows the contestants to play the TNF game, and still change picks for Sunday at a later time. To be aligned with Las Vegas contest rules, I’ve avoided the TNF games in the original model, but maybe I should revisit and only run this model at DraftKings due to flexibility and this models requirement for real time information.
The head-to-head record remains 11-7 on the season with New Mexico in the lead, and it will stay that way for another week as the systems don’t disagree on any week 13 games. Both systems agreed on New England and Green Bay last week, with those results being split. That brings the aligned systems record to 4-3 on the season. Hopefully there are better results on aligned plays this week, as both models agree on 2 teams in week 13, Baltimore and Denver. I’m going a little bigger on these 2 games this week.
Original Model
Last week was one for the duds. I love playing underdogs because who doesn’t love getting extra points and their is a lot of parity in the NFL. However, only 1 of 4 underdogs covered for the original model last week, and Chicago needed a wild 4th quarter comeback to get inside the number. Green Bay took care of business against the 49ers without Purdy at QB for the only favorite picked to get the cover.
Here’s a look at the contest records after week 12:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | SuperContest 1st half | DraftKings |
| Last week | 2-3 | 2-3 | |
| Overall | 24-36 | 15-29-1 | 24-36 |
Original Model – Week 13 Picks
The Steelers have exceeded my expectations so far this season, but the offensive production is really starting to slow down and they can’t depend on the defense to win every game. On the other side, the Bengals offense has been on fire with both Higgins and Chase healthy at WR. The Bengals high powered offense will overcome the Steelers defense and without the ability to keep up on the scoreboard, Pittsburgh will find itself on the losing end once again.
Is there any team more desperate for a win than Jacksonville? The papers are already talking about all of the offseason changes to come, include Baalke and Pederson being shown the door. If this Jaguars team is going to do anything to salvage its season and save any jobs, it will start this week. Look for Jacksonville to keep it close against the struggling Texans team.
Arizona looked bad last week in Seattle, and did not resemble the team that we had seen earlier in the season. However, in the NFL teams are never as bad as they looked the week before. While I’m not a fan of the back-to-back long distance travel, the Cardinals defense will give the Vikings enough problems to give the offense time to figure things out.
Baltimore’s offense is top-5 in the league, and the defense looks like it’s starting to figure things out. After a big road win on MNF in LA, the Ravens get another tough test with Philadelphia visiting this week. Once again, I’ll take the Ravens. I love the Ravens this year, have tickets on them winning everything from the division to the Super Bowl, and expect them to show up in these big games every week.
Cleveland pulled off the TNF upset against Pittsburgh in the snow, but did they win or did the Steelers give the game away? Lots of questionable decision making in that game on both sides of the football. Now the Browns must travel to Denver and play at the high elevation and the Broncos are playing better than any team in the league right now. The defense struggled more than expected last week against Las Vegas, but look for that to change this week against the worst team in the NFL.
Here are the week 13 Circa and DraftKings picks:
| Team | Circa Millions line | DraftKings line |
| Cincinnati | -3 | -2.5 |
| Jacksonville | +4.5 | +4.5 |
| Arizona | +3.5 | +3.5 |
| Baltimore | -3 | -2.5 |
| Denver | -5.5 | -5.5 |
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
