2025 Week 11 NFL Contest Picks
Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool
The NFL week 10 performance was very similar to the first quarter results, going 3-2. I’m very happy to be back to having a winning week, and looking to keep the momentum going in week 11. Only 2 teams are on bye this week, Indianapolis and New Orleans. I have RB Taylor and WR Pittman on a lot of my fantasy teams. I was real big on Indianapolis heading into the season, and bet them OVER the 7.5 win total and to win the AFC South division. The Colts cashed the win total ticket last week, and are in control of the AFC South. Hopefully they keep things going when they return in week 12 and power my fantasy team through the playoffs!
In last weeks picks, the Ravens got off to a slow start in Minnesota, but were able to get into the end zone while the Vikings kept settling for field goals. Baltimore was able to extend the lead to 2 touchdowns in the 4th quarter, which helped reduce the chances of a back door cover. The Bills went down to Miami and half the team thought it was for a holiday instead of a football game. The Dolphins continue to be a difficult team to gage. They do some things really well, but other things not so good, and lack consistency from week to week. Someone needs to crank up the urgency in Miami. Either way, the Dolphins showed up in week 10 while the Bills did not. And with the Patriots win on TNF, the Bills fall farther behind in the AFC East standings.
Dan Campbell took over play calling duties for the Lions offense against Washington. Detroit responded with it’s best offensive performance of the season. The Lions doubled up the Commanders winning 44-22 and easily covering the large spread. Speaking of 44-22, that was also the score of the Arizona at Seattle game. The Seahawks offense continues to have trouble protecting the football, and QB Darnold gave the Cardinals easy field position for a few possessions. However, the Arizona defense was not able to stop Seattle’s offense otherwise, and the Seahawks looked pretty good at home.
I was feeling pretty good at 3-1 heading into MNF with the Packers against the Eagles. I should’ve known the impact missing TE Kraft would have on the Packers offense. He was a major target for QB Love, and his absence left a large hole in the middle of the field. My failure to see this connection before the game cost me a dub. The other 2 teams I was considering were Chicago (who I took in survivor) and New England. Both won and covered in week 10, so I left a dub out there. That sucks.
Here is a look at the contest performance through week 10:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | DraftKings | SuperContest |
| Last Week: | 3-2 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Overall: | 27-23 | 29-21 | 26-23-1 |
Week 11 picks
New Mexico model
Aaron Rodgers continues to struggle winning in the state of California and the Steelers offense did not look good last week against the Chargers. However, this week they get Cincinnati at home in a revenge game. The Bengals stole a victory from the Steelers shortly after acquiring QB Flacco to ignite the offense. The Bengals offense has definitely been lit the last 3 weeks, but the defense hasn’t been able to get a stop when it matters. The Bengals defense has allowed 31, 39 and 47 points in its last 3 games. That’s bad news for Bengals fans as Rodgers will probably have his best game of the season this week.
The Bears are on a role, winning 2 in a row and 6 of their last 7. They’ve taken advantage of some soft defenses, and have the offense performing well. Despite leading a 4th quarter come back win last week, I’m still not a fan of QB Williams. He makes me nervous with his decision making, and he seems to fragile to run aggressively. However, these are 2 teams heading in opposite directions. The Vikings are struggling to get consistent quarterback play, and settle for too many field goals. Teams need to end drives in the end zone, especially drives that make it to the red zone.
Jacksonville completely fell apart last week against Houston, allowing a Davis Mills lead offense to come from behind and emerge victorious. The Jaguars defense needs to force turnovers in order to be effective, and they did that in the first quarter with an interception and a fumble recovery on Houston’s first 2 drives. They turned those turnovers into a 10 point lead. Unfortunately for them, they didn’t force another turnover the entire game, while Houston got 2 of their own, then scored 26 in the 4th to steal the dub. If the Jags can’t win the TO battle, they can’t win the game. The Chargers are a very well coached team that takes care of the football. LA’s offense should end a lot of drives in the end zone this week.
Speaking of turnovers, despite having one of the top offenses in the NFL, the Seahawks have a turnover problem. The Rams defense will be better than the Seahawks last few opponents, and is good at forcing turnovers. Also, the Rams offense is clicking right now, and QB Stafford looks like a true MVP candidate with his performances. Look for the Rams to take control of this game, and the NFC West division this week.
The New Mexico model was a big supporter of the Eagles early in the season, and included them on it’s selection card 5 weeks in a row. However, for the 2nd straight week, the model is fading the Eagles. Also for the 2nd straight week, it is taking the Lions. This is simply a judgement of the offenses. The Eagles offense has struggled to hit the big play consistently, and hasn’t had as much success with the run game as last year. Meanwhile, the Lions have one of the best offenses in the league, and might have just unleashed full potential with Campbell calling the plays. Campbell also took over play calling duties in 2021, his first season as head coach, and won all 3 of their games that season with him calling the plays. My fascination with HC Campbell grows every week, guy is a legend.
Here are the week 11 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Circa line | DraftKings line | SuperContest line |
| Pittsburgh | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| Chicago | +2.5 | +2.5 | +3 |
| LA Chargers | -3 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
| LA Rams | -3 | -2.5 | -3 |
| Detroit | +2.5 | +1.5 | +2.5 |
Original Model
The original model got back to it’s winning ways last week, going 3-2. That brings its overall record to 26-24 on the season.
Their wasn’t any system alignment last week, so those plays remain 3-6 ATS this season. The models agree on 2 plays this week, Chicago and LA Rams. This makes me nervous since the performance of aligned plays hasn’t been very good. Of course a couple of wins this weekend will have aligned plays almost to .500.
The original model held a 2-0 lead in head-to-head matchups going into last week. The models disagreed on 2 games last week, with the original model taking home dogs Miami and Minnesota while New Mexico took Buffalo and Baltimore. Those games split 1-1, so the original model still holds a 2 game lead at 3-1 on the season. There is 1 head-to-head contest this week: Detroit at Philadelphia. The original model likes the Eagles while New Mexico likes the Lions. I’ll be at the SNF game between Detroit and Philadelphia. I was hoping for a consensus so I had a side to cheer for, but with the models split, I’ll just enjoy the game.
Here are the week 11 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Tampa Bay | +5.5 |
| Chicago | +2.5 |
| Carolina | +3.5 |
| LA Rams | -2.5 |
| Philadelphia | -1.5 |
