Kicking the Tires on Value
Rookies vs. Free Agents at Kicker — NFL Fantasy Football PPG Analysis, 2018–2025
PART 5 OF 5 | ROOKIES VS. FREE AGENTS SERIES | Series Methodology
Part 1: Wide Receivers | Part 2: Running Backs | Part 3: Quarterbacks | Part 4: Tight Ends
⚡ Key Findings
- Overall Winner: Free Agents — 6.82 PPG vs. 6.54 PPG across 59 rookie seasons and 97 FA seasons (2018–2025)
- Season Record: Free agents won 5 of 8 seasons on group PPG average; rookies won 3 of the last 4 (2022, 2023, 2025)
- Recent Trend Shift: The 2025 rookie class posted the highest rookie group average in the dataset at 7.78 PPG
- Individual Peak: The top FA acquisition outperformed the top rookie in 7 of 8 seasons
- Best Rookie Season: Brandon Aubrey, DAL, 2023 — 157 total points, 9.24 PPG
- Best FA Season in Dataset: Kai Forbath, DAL, 2019 — 11.00 PPG
- Draft Strategy Signal: Lean FA if you can identify the elite target; lean rookie only if a consensus top option emerges from a high-powered offense
- Dataset: 2018–2025 NFL seasons | Metric: PPG (total game points ÷ games played)
Why the Kicker Position Rewards Data Over Instinct
The debate over rookie kicker fantasy football value versus free-agent acquisitions has quietly been one of the most data-rich questions in fantasy football draft strategy. Over eight NFL seasons — 2018 through 2025 — GridironGambler.com tracked 59 rookie kicker seasons and 97 free-agent kicker seasons, measuring impact by Points Per Game (PPG). This is the final installment in our five-part Rookies vs. Free Agents series, and the kicker position saves the most surprising twist for last: the gap is real, but it’s shrinking fast.
Free agents have held the structural advantage throughout the dataset — experience matters, and teams that sign veteran kickers in the offseason typically do so because they’ve earned the job. But the last four seasons have disrupted that comfortable narrative. Rookies won three of those four years on group average, and the 2025 class — averaging 7.78 PPG — was the strongest rookie kicker cohort the data has ever produced.
This isn’t a fluke. It’s a pipeline story. As NFL offenses grow more prolific and the kicker position becomes increasingly specialized, elite rookie kickers are hitting the ground running in ways that simply weren’t happening before 2020. Here’s what the numbers say.
NFL Kicker PPG by Season — Rookies vs. Free Agent Acquisitions (2018–2025)
| Season | Rookies | Rookie PPG | FA Acquisitions | FA PPG | PPG Edge | Winner |
| 2018 | 7 | 6.51 | 10 | 6.63 | 0.11 | Free Agents |
| 2019 | 6 | 5.70 | 9 | 7.28 | 1.58 | Free Agents |
| 2020 | 10 | 5.65 | 14 | 6.54 | 0.89 | Free Agents |
| 2021 | 10 | 5.59 | 16 | 6.48 | 0.89 | Free Agents |
| 2022 | 5 | 7.74 | 11 | 7.04 | 0.70 | Rookies |
| 2023 | 6 | 7.08 | 13 | 6.20 | 0.88 | Rookies |
| 2024 | 8 | 7.24 | 10 | 7.74 | 0.51 | Free Agents |
| 2025 | 7 | 7.78 | 14 | 7.04 | 0.74 | Rookies |
| 2018–2025 | 59 | 6.54 | 97 | 6.82 | 0.28 | Free Agents |
Free agents won on group PPG in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2024 — claiming five of eight seasons. Rookies, however, have won three of the last four years, with 2025 representing their strongest showing — a group average of 7.78 PPG — in the entire dataset.
Top Rookie Kicker vs. Top Free Agent Kicker — Season-by-Season Head-to-Head
| Season | Top Rookie | Team | Rookie PPG | Top FA | Team | FA PPG | Winner |
| 2018 | Brett Maher | DAL | 7.44 | Jason Myers | NYJ | 8.06 | FA |
| 2019 | Matt Gay | TAM | 7.75 | Kai Forbath | DAL | 11.00 | FA |
| 2020 | Tyler Bass | BUF | 8.81 | Daniel Carlson | LVR | 9.00 | FA |
| 2021 | Evan McPherson | CIN | 8.13 | Brett Maher | NOR | 8.29 | FA |
| 2022 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | 7.91 | Matthew Wright | PIT | 10.00 | FA |
| 2023 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | 9.24 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | 8.20 | ROOKIE |
| 2024 | John Parker Romo | MIN | 10.00 | Austin Seibert | WAS | 11.44 | FA |
| 2025 | Harrison Mevis | LAR | 8.33 | Spencer Shrader | IND | 10.60 | FA |
Free agents captured the individual PPG crown in 7 of 8 seasons. The lone exception was 2023, when Brandon Aubrey’s historic Dallas campaign — 157 points, 9.24 PPG — made him not just the top rookie of the dataset, but one of the best kicker seasons ever recorded.
Fantasy Kicker Draft Strategy — What the 2018–2025 Data Tells Us
| 6.82 Free Agent PPG — 2018–2025 | 6.54 Rookie PPG — 2018–2025 |
The overall verdict is clear: free-agent kickers outperform rookies on a group PPG basis across the full 2018–2025 window, 6.82 to 6.54. That margin isn’t enormous, but it’s consistent across five of eight seasons, and it signals a real structural edge — veteran kickers earn their spots through reliability and familiarity with their offensive systems.
The nuance that matters most for fantasy managers is this: in nearly every season, the ceiling of the best available free-agent kicker is higher than the ceiling of the best rookie. Kai Forbath’s 11.00 PPG in 2019 and Austin Seibert’s 11.44 PPG in 2024 are elite individual outcomes that no rookie matched in their debut seasons. If you can correctly identify the elite FA target, you’re buying higher upside than the rookie market typically offers.
Where rookies compete is at the group floor — particularly in recent seasons. The 2022 through 2025 window shows that an undrafted or late-round rookie from a prolific offense can now quietly match or beat the average FA signing. Brandon Aubrey in Dallas, Tyler Bass in Buffalo, and the 2025 class as a whole prove this isn’t noise. The draft-capital implication: don’t reach for a rookie kicker, but in the final rounds, a consensus top rookie is now a credible alternative to a middling FA.
Key Takeaways
- Lean free agent first. — FA kickers hold a 6.82 vs. 6.54 PPG advantage overall and won 5 of 8 seasons. The floor and ceiling are both historically higher.
- Respect the recent trend. — Rookies have won 3 of the last 4 seasons by group average. The talent pipeline at kicker is improving.
- Chase identified elite FA targets. — The top individual FA outperformed the top rookie in 7 of 8 seasons. A premium FA (think Carlson, Seibert, Shrader-tier) is worth targeting.
- Use context for rookies. — Brandon Aubrey (Dallas, 2023) and Tyler Bass (Buffalo, 2020) thrived because they landed in elite scoring ecosystems. Offense matters more than pedigree at kicker. • Never reach for a kicker. — Rounds 15+ only. When you do pick, lean FA unless a single consensus rookie has emerged from a top-5 scoring offense.
Frequently Asked Questions — Rookie vs. Free Agent Kickers in Fantasy Football
Q: Are rookie kickers worth drafting in fantasy football?
Rookie kickers can be worth drafting in fantasy football, but the data suggests caution. Across 2018–2025, rookie kickers averaged 6.54 PPG compared to 6.82 PPG for free-agent acquisitions — a meaningful gap. However, rookies have won three of the last four seasons on group average, and elite rookie placements (Brandon Aubrey in 2023, Tyler Bass in 2020) demonstrate that the right rookie in the right offense can be a legitimate fantasy asset. The key qualifier: only target a rookie kicker in the final rounds of your draft, and only if they are the consensus top option at the position entering the season.
Q: Do free agent kickers outperform rookie kickers in fantasy football?
Yes — historically, free-agent kicker acquisitions outperform rookies in fantasy football PPG. Over eight seasons of data (2018–2025), free agents averaged 6.82 PPG across 97 player-seasons, compared to 6.54 PPG for rookies across 59 player-seasons. Free agents also claimed the top individual PPG performer title in 7 of 8 seasons. That said, the gap has narrowed significantly since 2022, and the 2025 rookie class (7.78 PPG average) was the strongest in the dataset — suggesting the conventional wisdom may be shifting.
Q: Who is the best rookie kicker in fantasy football history by PPG?
Based on data from 2018 to 2025, Brandon Aubrey of the Dallas Cowboys in 2023 stands as the best rookie kicker season in the dataset. Aubrey posted 9.24 PPG and 157 total fantasy points in his debut season — numbers that not only led all rookie kickers in the dataset but also outpaced the top free-agent kicker acquisition that same year. His performance in Dallas’s high-powered offense is the clearest modern case for drafting a rookie kicker.
Q: What is the best strategy for drafting a kicker in fantasy football?
The best fantasy football kicker draft strategy, supported by 2018–2025 data, is to wait until the final one or two rounds, then prioritize a proven free-agent acquisition over a rookie when possible. Free-agent kickers deliver a higher group PPG average and more consistent individual ceiling outcomes. If no elite FA target is available, target a rookie kicker from a top-5 scoring NFL offense — preferably one who has won an uncontested starting job in training camp. Never use a pick earlier than Round 14 on a kicker, regardless of perceived upside.
Q: Which NFL kickers should I target in fantasy football for their first season with a new team?
Free-agent kickers entering new teams have historically delivered strong value in fantasy football. Notable examples from the 2018–2025 dataset include Jason Myers with the New York Jets (2018, 8.06 PPG), Kai Forbath with Dallas (2019, 11.00 PPG), Daniel Carlson with Las Vegas (2020, 9.00 PPG), and Austin Seibert with Washington (2024, 11.44 PPG). The common thread: each landed with a high-volume offense that generated consistent red-zone opportunities. When targeting a free-agent kicker, prioritize offensive system and scoring volume over the kicker’s individual reputation.
