2025 Week 5 NFL Contest Picks

Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool

Another week another 3-2 performance from the New Mexico model. It is consistent to say the least. The good news is, a 3-2 performance in cash games will get you 14.5% ROI. That would be a nice weekly return, and allow a nice sized profit at the end of the season. Unfortunately, 3-2 won’t win anything in contest play.

Seattle started things off with a win on TNF. The Seahawks jumped out to a nice start, but let the Cardinals back in for a more dramatic ending. The Seahawks held on for the win and the cover and I went into the weekend 1-0.

Philadelphia also jumped out to a big lead early, but Tampa Bay connected on a pair of 70+ yard touchdown passes in the 2nd half to tighten things up. Fortunately the Eagles defense is stout and they stepped up big when it mattered most. Meanwhile, the Saints were answering the Bills score for score and hanging inside the number the entire game. I was worried the Bills would score a touchdown on their last drive, but the Saints managed to hold them to a field goal, and kept it inside the number.

I enter the late games 3-0. The Ravens jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead at Kansas City, and they still lead 7-6 with 10 minutes to play in the 2nd quarter. Sadly, that is where the wheels fell off for Baltimore and their poor defense. The return of WR Worthy gave the Chiefs the spark they were missing, and once they took the lead they never gave it back. I still had a chance at 4-1 as the Colts were playing the Rams really tough. The Rams scored a touchdown just before halftime to take a 13-10 lead, I still had the cover but LA was getting the ball to start the 2nd half. The Colts managed to force the Rams to punt on the 1st drive of 2nd half, but on the Colts ensuing drive things took a turn for the worse. Colts WR Mitchell caught what would have been a 75 yard touchdown, however, right before crossing the goal line he losses the ball, it rolls through the end zone and the Rams get it on the 20. Instead of being up 17-13, the Colts still trail 13-10. After a pair of Colts scores, they lead 20-13, but the Rams tied it at 20 on the very next drive. On the next drive, RB Taylor bust a 40+ yard run for the Colts to regain the lead, but their was a penalty on the play. WR Mitchell was called for holding, the drive sputtered and the Colts punted. Finally, the dagger to the 4-1. Rams WR Atwell caught an 88 yard pass to score the game winning touchdown. Final score Rams 27, Colts 20.

Here is a look at the contest performance through week 4:

Contest Results	Circa Millions	DraftKings	SuperContest
Last Week:	3-2	3-2	3-2
Overall:	13-7	15-5	12-7-1

Week 5 picks

New Mexico model

A few teams have become regular plays for the New Mexico model, and that is no different this week. The Cowboys return to the card in week 5. This pick makes me nervous for a few reasons. First, the Cowboys lost the last time they were flagged, that was also as a road favorite. Second, the New Mexico model has the Cowboys rated as the worst defense in the entire league. However, the model still likes Dallas because it has them with a top 5 rated offense, and right now offense is more important that defense. The good news, the Jets defense is rated 31st, so the Cowboys offense should have a field day in this high scoring affair. Overall, the Cowboys are rated as above average while the Jets are rated as bad. The difference between those types of teams is more than 3 points.

The Eagles return again in week 5, making a 4th consecutive appearance on the card. The New Mexico model loves the Eagles efficiency on offense, and has the team rated 3rd overall. The Broncos have the top rated defense, but still are rated 8th overall. This doesn’t merit a 3+ point line, and I’m not sure why New Mexico flagged this game. Either there is an error in the system and the Eagles are stuck (unlikely). Or, the model doesn’t like the quality of opponents the Broncos have beaten, and doesn’t expect them to rise to the occasion, on short rest, playing the early game on the other side of the country. But I don’t remember writing that into the code, so I’m left scratching my head.

After covering as a large underdog in week 4, the Saints return to the card as a short favorite at home in week 5. The model has these 2 teams rated exactly the same as below average teams. Unfortunately for me, it doesn’t realize the Giants have a new QB, and he might be a lot better than his predecessor. I can only hope the Saints offensive line is finally healthy enough to play together this week. A solid run game is the only way the Saints get the dub.

The Colts return to the card again in week 5, this time as a heavy favorite at home. The model doesn’t think that is enough points. The model has the Colts rated as great and the Raiders rated as poor. That is complete opposite ends of the spectrum. Lets see if Indianapolis can bounce back from heartbreak in LA.

I hate the Seahawks this year, but they return to the card for a 2nd week in a row, like most of the teams on this weeks entry. Maybe the model is stuck. Seattle has extra rest after playing on TNF in week 4. The Buccaneers must travel all the way across the country, and play shorthanded once again. Tampa Bays o-line is devastated by injuries, WR Godwin is still working his way back form injury and WR Evans and RB Irving are both out. Seems like a tough spot for TB, but the Rams showed us a thing or 2 on TNF about what backups can achieve. Ugh, I hate all these picks.

Here are the week 5 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:

Team	Circa line	DraftKings line	SuperContest line
Dallas	-2.5	-2.5	-2.5
Philadelphia	-3.5	-4.5	-3.5
New Orleans	-2	-1.5	-2
Indianapolis	-7	-6.5	-6.5
Seattle	-3.5	-3.5	-3.5

Original Model

The original model went 4-1 in week 4. That brings its overall record to 14-6 on the season. The Ravens were the only loss on the card, and once Dallas went to OT, it was a W. Weird seeing a game end in a tie though.

The systems aligned on 2 plays last week, New Orleans and Baltimore. Those picks went 1-1, taking aligned plays to 3-1 on the season. The 2 models are aligned on 1 pick again this week, Seattle.

Here are the week 5 DraftKings picks:

Team	DraftKings line
Cleveland	+4.5
Miami	+1.5
Houston	+3.5
Seattle	-3.5
New England	+8.5