NFL Week 1 Best Bets
Weekly picks for the 2024 Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ‘Em Pool
The NFL season is back, and so are the pick ’em contests that everyone loves to participate in. Once again this year I’m competing in the Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings season long Pick ‘Em pool. Just like last year, I’ll post my weekly picks for the contests here, making it easy to follow along, and allowing me to provide some insights into the picks I’m making or how my performance is going.
Last year I had 2 entries in each contest, and sometimes this lead to more than 5 picks each week. Unfortunately not all changes are improvements, and the modified version I ran last year in entry 2 didn’t perform much different than the original model that I created before the 2022 season. I used the original model to finish 3rd in DraftKings 2022 season long pick ’em pool. Since the modified version did not show any improvement I discarded the updated code, and I’m only using the original version from 2022.
One more thing before I jump into this weeks picks. Last season while languishing with a 50/50 result, I started tinkering with a completely new model that I called New Mexico. New Mexico was built using results from the 2017-2022 seasons, and I finished it sometime around week 12 of last season. I then ran 5 variations of New Mexico for weeks 13-18, and analyzed the results this offseason. While all 5 variations produced similar results, 1 version stood out above the rest, and it accurately predicted ATS results 64.8% of the time for weeks 13-18. I’m not ready to put full backing into New Mexico just yet, I want to test it for the entire 2024 season to be sure, but I will be noting the games that New Mexico flags in these posts as well.
Now on to the NFL week 1 best bets. There are already 2 NFL games completed for week 1 already with the addition of the Friday Night kickoff in Brazil. While I love getting more NFL games on new nights, I don’t like losing an option from the Sunday betting lineup. However, with 14 games to choose from between Sunday and Monday there are plenty of good options still remaining. Here are the week 1 picks:
| Team | Circa Millions line | SuperContest line | DraftKings line |
| Jacksonville | +3.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 |
| NY Giants | +1 | +1.5 | +0.5 |
| Carolina | +4 | +4 | +4.5 |
| Indianapolis | +2.5 | +2.5 | +1.5 |
| Cleveland | -2 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
The DraftKings contest is slightly different from Circa and Westgate in the lines that are posted. DraftKings contests don’t allow for pushes, you either win or lose, so every line has a half point associated with it, and that’s why you see a +0.5 instead of pick ’em or +1.
New Mexico agreed with the original system on the NY Giants, but it preferred 4 other games over JAX, CAR, IND and CLE. The 4 other games that New Mexico flagged in week 1 are:
- Philadelphia -2
- LA Chargers -3
- Detroit -4.5
- NY Jets +4.5
I know the Philly/Green Bay game was last night, and that pick does you no good now, but it’s good to see that the system flagged a winner in it’s first prediction of the season. If you’re looking for a 5th game from New Mexico, it also flagged Chicago -3.5, but it was just barely above the cutoff level, so proceed with caution.
Good luck this week, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. Gambling is for entertainment purposes only, and not to be seen as a viable source of income.
