NFL 2026 Week 5 Picks

Last week was not a good week for the prediction models I’m using. Only New Mexico was able to have a winning week going 3-2. The AIP model had a terrible day, going 1-4 and dropping season total all the way down to 60% accuracy. The New Mexico model is now only 1 game behind AIP for best performing model. The original model and Zed both went 2-3 in week 4, and are 9-11 overall, so they are clearly underperforming expectations right now.

Week 5 is already underway with the Buccaneers pulling the upset of the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. The 3rd quarter was disastrous for Dallas, but they still had a chance to tie the game late, and if it wasn’t for a dropped interception by the Cowboys defense, the game could have had a different outcome. Week 5 also starts bye weeks for a pair of teams, with Kansas City and Carolina having the week off. Between Thursday night and the bye week, there are only 14 games left to choose from.

DraftKings Pool Results

Here is a look at the standings of the 4 models in the DraftKings season long pick em pool.

Model	Week 2 Results	Overall Results
Original	2-3	9-11
New Mexico	3-2	11-9
Zed	2-3	9-11
AIP	1-4	12-8

Cash Play Results

My spread bets were also terrible last week going 1-2 for first losing week of the season. The Bills were handled by the Patriots, the Rams pulled a 2nd half comeback to win/cover and Detroit’s defense couldn’t slow down the Panthers offense. I’m still making some money thought with the 12-8 overall record on spread bets. I went 2-1 in my moneyline bets last week, but should’ve just bet all 3 on the spread as the line didn’t come into play in any game. The Bears and Colts took care of business, however, the Colts were fortunate that QB Mariotta was forced to leave the game for Washington due to injury. The rookie replacement was clearly not as prepared as he needed to be.

Bet Type	Week 2	Overall
Spread (ATS)	1-2	12-8
MoneyLine (M/L)	2-1	5-6

Week 5 DraftKings Pool Entries

Here is a look at the entries for each of the models for week 5. There are a few teams that the models agree on, but there are also a couple of games that the models disagree on.

Original Model

Pick	Line
New England Patriots	-3.5
New York Jets	-2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	-2.5
Los Angeles Chargers	+3.5
Seattle Seahawks	-2.5

The Original model is once again taking 4 favorites and 1 underdog. The model is taking the better side of key numbers in every game except the Patriots. The original model is willing to lay they 3.5 points, suggesting it believes the Raiders are suspect while the Patriots are finding there way. Lets hope QB Maye plays better this week again.

New Mexico Model

Pick	Line
Indianapolis Colts	+2.5
Cleveland Browns	+2.5
Tennessee Titans	+6.5
San Francisco 49ers	+2.5
Buffalo Bills	+2.5

Once again there is a strong difference between the New Mexico and Original models expectations for some of these games. New Mexico will happily take the Browns over the Jets, suggesting Cleveland is still underrated by the betting market. New Mexico also took the Colts instead of the Steelers, which I would have to agree with as the Steelers have been up and down to start the year and it’s uncertain which version will show up each week. The Steelers are coming off the TNF mini-bye so they should be rested and ready to go. Finally, New Mexico took San Francisco while the Original model preferred the Seahawks. The models split last weeks difference 1-1, so will be interesting to see which model prevails this weekend.

Zed Model

Pick	Line
New York Jets	-2.5
Indianapolis Colts	+2.5
Arizona Cardinals	+4.5
Washington Commaders	-3.5
Buffalo Bills	+2.5

Zed agrees with the Original model on the Jets over the Browns, making that 2 models on the Jets so far. However, Zed also agrees with New Mexico on the Colts, also giving Indianapolis 2 models backing it. Zed likes the return of QB Daniels for Washington this week, and thinks the Giants will come back down to earth after last weeks lopsided win over Arizona. Zed also agrees with New Mexico on the Bills bouncing back this week against the Rams.

AIP Model

Pick	Line
Indianapolis Colts	+2.5
Las Vegas Raiders	+3.5
Tennessee Titans	+6.5
Chicago Bears	-2.5
Los Angeles Chargers	+3.5

The AIP model makes it 3 models on Indianapolis, making the Original model as the only detractor in that matchup. However, AIP agrees with the Original model on the Chargers, making that a play across 2 models. AIP also disagrees with the Original model on the Raiders at Patriots game, preferring the Raiders and the points. Finally, AIP rounds out it’s card this weekend with the Titans and Bears. The Titans have shown some life the last couple of weeks, keeping the games closer than expected while Houston has struggled so far this season on defense. The Bears are a hot team, regardless of who is playing QB, but RB Monengai is out this week, so hopefully RB Swift can carry the load.

Model Consensus: Personal Betting Action

When I look across all four models and identify the most agreed-upon picks to put real money behind them. Here’s where I’m betting this week, with the lines locked in:

Spread Bets

Pick	Line	Models Backing
Tennessee Titans	+7.5	AIP
Washington Commanders	-3.5	Zed
Los Angeles Chargers	+3.5	Original, AIP

Moneyline Bets

Team	Odds	Notes
Chicago Bears	-120	Hard to win in Green Bay, so I’ll just take the moneyline instead of laying the points with the Bears

Another light week this week. Not much model consensus for teams this week, instead settling for single model selections that don’t have another model taking the opposite side. The Chargers were actually the 6th recommendation of the New Mexico model, so it’s almost like they have 3 models selecting them instead of 2. If I was to lean towards action from any model, it would be AIP. It’s the newest model, but it also went through serious back testing to prove it’s merit.