2025 Week 8 NFL Contest Picks
Weekly picks for Circa Millions, Westgate SuperContest and DraftKings Pick ’em Pool
After a poor 1-4 performance in week 6, I bounced back with a solid 4-1 in week 7. I was hoping for a 5-0 to get back to a 3-2 average for the 2 weeks, but I’m very happy with the 4-1. Week 8 is a difficult week, lots of big lines, and 6 teams are on a bye this week. With only 13 games to choose from, I included the TNF game between the Vikings and Chargers in my picks. The Chargers took care of business for me, so I’m already starting the week 1-0. Hopefully that is a sign of things to come for this weekend.
The 4-1 performance helped in the standings as well. After the 1-4 performance in week 6 I was ranked 156 at DraftKings, 572 at Circa and 132 at SuperContest. Now I’m sitting at 50 at DraftKings, 281 at Circa and 56 at SuperContest. The fall is always worse than the recovery, and while I did improve in the standings, it will take a while to make up for the poor 1-4 performance.
Here is a look at the contest performance through week 7:
| Contest Results | Circa Millions | DraftKings | SuperContest |
| Last Week: | 4-1 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Overall: | 21-14 | 23-12 | 20-14-1 |
Week 8 picks
New Mexico model
Baltimore has been dealing with a lot of injuries this season. They’ve also been dealing with a leaky defense, ranked 31st in the league by the New Mexico model. The Ravens are coming off a bye, and hope to have a lot of injured players return this week. The Bears have been getting better each week, and you can feel the culture change under head coach Johnson. He is certainly helping QB Williams in his development, and the offense is no longer a first drive wonder. The Bears offense is ranked 11th overall by the New Mexico model, and getting better each week. Even if the Ravens defense is completely healthy this week, I don’t think they suddenly stop this Bears offense.
In the TNF post, I talked about how potentially the New Mexico model isn’t favoring teams, but perhaps fading certain teams. That seemed the case with the Vikings on TNF, and again with the Browns. The only loss on the card last week was Miami at Cleveland, but New England is certainly not Miami. The Patriots offense is ranked in the top-10 by the model, and the defense is rated much higher than the Dolphins. The Browns have played good at home, but have struggled on the road, and I expect that to continue this week against a much improved Patriots team.
Last week, Denver pulled off a miracle against the NY Giants, scoring 33 points in the 4th quarter. Now they face another NFC East team in Dallas. The Cowboys offense has been absolutely fantastic this season, and the New Mexico model has them rated the top offense in the league. However, the defense has not been good, and the Cowboys have been forced to win shootouts, or lose when the offense struggles. Now they must face the Broncos 3rd rated defense, and play at the elevation in Denver. The Broncos have the 11th rated offense, and against the poor Dallas defense you’d expect them to move the ball at will. However, the Cowboys have been improving on defense each week, and have a few players returning from injury. Also, Denver’s defense hasn’t really been tested yet this year, and after surrendering 32 points to the Giants last week, they’ve shown they are susceptible to powerful offenses. This one also comes down to the wire, but I’ll take the team with the bigger leg at kicker.
I could go into detail about the stats and New Mexico ratings that show Pittsburgh is the superior team in this game. However, the tipping point for me was QB Rodgers saying this wasn’t a revenge game against the Packers. It’s absolutely a revenge game. Rodgers said something similar before the week 1 game against the Jets, and after the game he let his true feelings be known in the press conference. This is a guy that holds grudges, and loves proving people wrong. Rodgers wills the Steelers to a win in this game.
Here are the week 8 picks for New Mexico in SuperContest, Circa Millions and DraftKings Contests:
| Team | Circa line | DraftKings line | SuperContest line |
| LA Chargers | -3 | -2.5 | -1.5 |
| Chicago | +6.5 | +6.5 | +6.5 |
| New England | -7 | -6.5 | -6.5 |
| Dallas | +3 | +3.5 | +3.5 |
| Pittsburgh | +3 | +3.5 | +3 |
Original Model
The original model went 2-3 again in week 7. That brings its overall record to 21-14 on the season. Once again the aligned model pick of Miami lost last week. That drops the aligned selections to 3-4 on the season. Maybe I should start avoiding these games. The models do not align on any picks this week.
In the first head-to-head matchup last week, the New Mexico model got the win with Indianapolis over the Original models selection of the LA Chargers. There are no head-to-head matchups this week.
Here are the week 8 DraftKings picks:
| Team | DraftKings line |
| Houston | +1.5 |
| Carolina | +7.5 |
| NY Giants | +7.5 |
| Cleveland | +6.5 |
| New Orleans | +5.5 |
