NFL 2026 Week 4 Picks
Another exciting week of NFL football in week 3. The game in Brazil was back and forth excitement, and the Ravens ability to get in field goal range and win the game was nothing short of amazing. Week 4 is here, marking the end of the first quarter of the 2026 season. Teams true identities are starting to show, but injuries to key players is also happening across the league. I’m still factoring in a porting of the 2025 results, but really starting to lean on the 2026 stats in all the models.
DraftKings Pool Results
Here is a look at the standings of the 4 models in the DraftKings season long pick em pool. After all 4 models went 3-2 in week 2, they split results in week 3 with half going 2-3 and the other half 3-2. The AIP model continues to produce winning results each week, and now has an 11-4 record on the season. The Original model fell below .500 on the season. Meanwhile, Zed is getting closer to .500 after posting a 1-4 week 1 performance to start the season.
| Model | Week 2 Results | Overall Results |
| Original | 2-3 | 7-8 |
| New Mexico | 2-3 | 8-7 |
| Zed | 3-2 | 7-8 |
| AIP | 3-2 | 11-4 |
Cash Play Results
My spread bets went 4-1 last week, with 2 of my underdogs winning outright and also cashing ML bets at plus money. I had the right side of a common number with the Cowboys +3.5, while I would have preferred them to score a TD and win at that end of the game so I could cash my ML bet as well, I was happing cashing the spread ticket. Cincinnati was the only blemish on the spread bets in week 3. The Texans screwed me on the ML bets. That is twice now I’ve taken a short home favorite on the ML instead of laying points and lost.
| Bet Type | Week 2 | Overall |
| Spread (ATS) | 4-1 | 11-6 |
| MoneyLine (M/L) | 2-2 | 3-5 |
Week 4 DraftKings Pool Entries
Here is a look at the entries for each of the models for week 4. There are a few teams that the models agree on, but there are also a couple of games that the models disagree on.
Original Model
| Pick | Line |
|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | -3.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | -1.5 |
| Denver Broncos | +2.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -2.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -7.5 |
The Original model went from all underdogs in week 3 to taking 4 favorites in week 4. The model took 3 games on the wrong side of common numbers 3 and 7. The original model decided it was okay to lay the extra half point on the Colts and Seahawks, and left a half point on the table with the Broncos.
New Mexico Model
| Pick | Line |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -6.5 |
| Chicago Bears | -3.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | +11.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -2.5 |
| New Orleans Saints | -2.5 |
New Mexico model disagrees with the original model on Denver at San Francisco, preferring the 49ers. It also decided to take 4 favorites, but 3 of them are on the right side of common numbers 3 and 7. Interesting to see which model does better on the common number selections.
Zed Model
| Pick | Line |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -6.5 |
| Houston Texans | -2.5 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -2.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -2.5 |
| Detroit Lions | -3.5 |
Zed agrees with the New Mexico model on Buffalo and San Francisco. It also agrees with the original model on the LA Rams. A card full of favorites makes me nervous for the Zed model this week, but it is taking 4 games on the right side of common numbers.
AIP Model
| Pick | Line |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -6.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -2.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2.5 |
| Denver Broncos | +2.5 |
| Detroit Lions | -3.5 |
The AIP model makes it 3 models on Buffalo, a near consensus and a definite cash selection. AIP agrees with the original model on Denver, officially splitting the Broncos at 49ers game 2 models to 2. It also disagrees with Zed on the Dallas at Houston game, preferring the Cowboys. However, it agrees with Zed on the Detroit Lions.
Model Consensus: Personal Betting Action
When I look across all four models and identify the most agreed-upon picks to put real money behind them. Here’s where I’m betting this week, with the lines locked in:
Spread Bets
| Pick | Line | Models Backing |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -6.5 (-120) | New Mexico, Zed, AIP |
| Los Angeles Rams | -3.5 | Original, Zed |
| Detroit Lions | -3.5 | Zed, AIP |
Moneyline Bets
| Team | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | -205 | Uncertain of QB Daniels ability to play at time of bet lead me to ML bet instead of spread. |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -142 | I strongly considered CIN -2.5 but feels like a last second field goal game, I’ll take ML instead |
| Chicago Bears | -185 | Uncertainty about which QB would play for Bears gave me pause to lay the points, but talent/depth on Bears is greater than the Jets |
I decided to only play the spread on teams that had full model consensus this week. Their were a pair of games that were offset by different models taking opposite sides: 49ers vs Broncos, Texans vs Cowboys. But a lot more with only a single model choosing: Arizona, Indianapolis, Chicago, Tennessee, New Orleans, Seattle and Cincinnati. Betting on all of those would lead to a very large card and a high probability of getting juiced. Instead I took the 3 single model teams I liked the most and made ML bets instead. Depending on how New Mexico performs with it’s 4 Sunday selections, I might follow up with a bet on New Orleans, but only time will tell.
