How 1-score game results impact next years wins Football is a game of weird bounces, questionable decisions by the head coach and disputable penalty calls by the officials. These things are hard to quantify from an impact perspective, but are usually reflected in the 1-score game record. I like to classify a teams performance in…
Determining Hardest and Easiest Schedules An exercise I like to complete each year while preparing for the upcoming season is determining who has the hardest and/or easiest schedule. There are lots of ways you can determine the strength of a teams schedule, the most common of which is using the prior year win percentage for…
The teams that benefit from extra rest and those that don’t The release of the NFL schedule provides a lot of insights for the year. Not only do we find out the players of primetime games and those punished on Thursday night, but sportsbooks also release lines for every game on the season. The lines…
Using weekly Year over Year Performance I’ve spent the past few weeks looking at teams year over year performance by week, and identified those that Start Strong, Start Slow and Finish Strong. In the final installment of reviewing teams YoY performance, I review the teams that finish poorly down the stretch. I used the same…
Using weekly Year over Year Performance The last few weeks I wrote about teams that start strong and those that start slow. But as we all know, it’s not necessarily how you start, but how you finish that matters the most. With that in mind, I’ll spend the next couple weeks looking at teams that…
Determined using odds movement The 2023 NFL schedule was released on May 10, and even though we know which teams are playing which before hand, the order and location each are played has an impact on a teams expectations. This can be reflected in the futures market for win totals, and of course odds to…